USA finansijsko trziste i refleksije na Evropu, Srbiju...

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/ecalendar/index.html

To je u 14:30 po našem vremenu. Fjučersi će nas obavestiti o rezultatima i pre nego što ih vidimo, tj. pročitamo :D

U očekivanju podataka s američkog tržišta rada

Ekonomski analitičari očekuju da je američko gospodarstvo u zadnjem mjesecu neto izgubilo dodatnih 175 tisuća radnih mjesta te da će stopa nezaposlenosti porasti na 9,8 posto.

Bernanke i porazni fundamenti ojačali dolar
NEW YORK – Izvješće sugerira da su banke računovodstveno prikazale tek pola ukupnih gubitaka.
2.10.2009 6:06:46
http://www.seebiz.eu/sr/banke/

Da, ovo je očekivanje analitičara (polje Consensus):



Ako bude bolje od toga, idemo u plus, ako bude gore, zna se...

Znaci u ponedeljak nastavljamo pad ,super :evil: :wall:

Sentiment se naglo promenio u negativan.

Očekivanje da je nezaposlenost povećana opet (kao što vidimo, za novih 170.000 ljudi, znači da će oporavak biti sporiji.

Na bloombergu ima još jedan naslov, a to je da 20% pozajmica banaka nije vraćeno, što je najviši nivo u poslednjih 18 godina. Dakle, počinju i mediji da mrače u oktobru :D

-260.000
ode u aut

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-sept-payroll-losses-accelerate-to-263000-2009-10-02

Veselo...

Kako li ce berze odreagovati na ovo? Mada, da budemo iskreni koliko verujete da su ovi losi rezultati ugradjeni u ovaj pad od juce i ove nedelje?

Sta generalno ocekujete iduce nedelje?

Vec su odreagovale, futuresi u minusu preko 1%, Evropa ponovo potop. Ocekujem u ponedeljak nastavak crvenila na Lelexu.

StefanMR ::

Veselo...

Evo rezultata!
I šta sada?

Jel ovo bilo retoričko pitanje?

Pa jeste...
Zato što je pre toga neko filozofirao kako nisu rezultati loši i da će sve to da krene odmah da raste...

Kako je Belex padao od kraja 2008. na malim obimima trgovanja izmedju malih ulagača, tako će se u početku i podizati. Mislim da neka aps. analogija ne može da se izvede ni sa 2005, ni sa 2007. godinom, pošto je tada sistemski rizik na svetskim berzama bio konstantno mali. Pozitivnu analogiju sa ranijim fazama našeg tržišta ili nekim sličnim tržištima ne mogu naći.
Trentno imamo stanje stalnog smenjivanja dobrih i loših pokazatelja, uz malu likvidnost i moć špekulanata. Sve je slično kao od sredine 2008. s tim da je, barem do sada, više dobrih nego loših vesti i ista je aps. vrednost odstupanja sentimenta od 100, ali sa + ispred sebe. Ove sličnosti i razlike me navode da posmatram analogiju sadašnjeg stanja sa padom berze od jeseni 2008. kao sliku u ogledalu (pad od 70% bi bio skok od 235%). U tom slučaju bi mogli očekivati skokove veće od 1% prosečno svaki II dan, svaki IV dan veće od 2%. Većina skokova bi bili grupisani u većim grupama (do 10 dana). Medjutim bili bi grupisani u 1-3 dana i minusi,.. Ali mogle bi se očekivati i par većih korekcija u trajanju po 6 dana (ponekad minus 3 do -6%). U tim slučajevima neki će predvidjati početak kraja i svi će malo gubiti nerve. Biće nezgodno ako budu u pravu. Evo podataka koji će, izmedju ostalog, oblikovati tržište iduće nedelje.

10:00 AM ISM Services
Oct 7 10:30 AM Crude Inventories
Oct 7 2:00 PM Consumer Credit
Oct 7 2:00 PM Treasury Budget
Oct 8 8:30 AM Initial Claims
Oct 8 8:30 AM Continuing Claims
Oct 8 10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories
Oct 9 8:30 AM Trade Balance

Ja mislim da sve vece krize u oporavku su imali vise manjih zemljotresa! sto je slucaj i sa ovom! Ja licno (kao laik) sam ocekivao jednu vecu rupu do kraja godine! sto nemora da znaci i da je to ovo sada! pravi oporavak mislim da ce krenuti krajem godine! Mene licno samo malo zabrinjava sve veca traznja za zlatom! Sto moze da znaci vise stvari! 1. ocikivanje oruzanih sukoba ,2. nestanak jedne od valuta po meni eura U Dojce banci nemogu da nakupe zlata koliko klijenti traze! Mislim da SandP500 nece ispod 1000 poena mozda vrlo malo! ako nastavi ispod odosmo mo na cene u martu ali mi koji smo prodali akcije to i prizeljkujemo :twisted: Salimse!
Oporavak je krenuo neka se Hladi malo trziste! a Stefan kada kaze paljba po akcija idemo u paljbu! Meni licno Enhl i Sjpt deluju da ce prvi biti za kupovinu! pogotovo Enhl!

Traznja za zlatom je zbog straha od inflacije usled ogromnih paketa koji su upumpani. Ne verujem da ce evro nestati. Ja ga vidim kao zamenu za dolar koji ce izgubiti dominantnu ulogu u svetu. Po meni su preterali sa optimizmom kada su rekli da neke zemlje izlaze iz recesije. Mislim da je Japan i SAD tek malo iznad dna, kao i Britanija, a da Nemacka predvodi euro zonu u oporavku i da ce ona prva u Eu izaci iz krize.
Ne znam, ali mi se cini da agbn moze povuci berzu najpre od svih.

Lelex :D
Ne mogu da prestanem da se smejem...

Ivan2211 ::

Jel zna neko kada izlaze prvi earnings q3 za firme iz SP500?
Znam da je prva iz dow ALCOA 7. oktobra, negde sam pročitao da će prve kompaije iy SP500 izaći sutra (petak), ali sad nikako ne mogu da to ponovo pronadjem.

Evo konačno pronađoh (inače članak koji sam pročitao bio je na Reutersu)
Prvo u utorak izlaze iz SP500 Yum Brands i Pepsi
U sredu Alcoa (ona je i u Dow i u SP), a iz SP Costco i Family Dolar


Ono na šta će svi obratiti posebnu pažnju nije više samo profit (kao početkom jula) jer je on tada postignut kroz smanjivanje troškova (otpuštanja, poreske olakšice...), već će se posebno motriti povećanje (ili smanjenje) operativnih prihoda koji bi trebali da daju jasan signal da li i koliko tržište (čitaj: američka potrošnja) napreduje u pozitivnom smeru.

Roubini Says Stocks Have Risen ‘Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast’

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By Shamim Adam and Francine Lacqua

Oct. 4 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who accurately predicted the financial crisis, said stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.

“Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul yesterday. “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.”

Stocks have surged around the world in the past six months as evidence mounts that the economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has soared 51 percent from a 12-year low in March while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 48 percent. The euphoria contrasts with the cautious tone of Group of Seven policy makers, who said after their meeting in Istanbul yesterday that prospects for growth “remain fragile.”

“The real economy is barely recovering while markets are going this way,” Roubini said. If growth doesn’t rebound rapidly, “eventually markets are going to flatten out and correct to valuations that are justified. I see a growing gap between what markets are doing and the weaker real economic activities.”

‘Anemic’ Recovery

The International Monetary Fund predicts the global economy will expand 3.1 percent in 2010, led by growth in Asia, after a 1.1 percent contraction this year. That is still “anemic” and “very weak,” Roubini said.

U.S. stocks fell last week after manufacturing expanded less than anticipated and unemployment climbed to a 26-year high, fueling concern the economy is rebounding more slowly than forecast.

Gains in the S&P 500 have pushed valuations in the index to more than 19 times reported operating profits from the past year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s near the most expensive level since 2004.

The performance of the U.S. economy is probably more sluggish than reflected in stock markets, risking a correction in equities, Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence said last month. U.S. stock-market investors have “over processed” the stabilization of growth in the world’s largest economy, Spence said.

Creating Bubbles

The global equity rally has added about $20.1 trillion to the value of stocks worldwide since this year’s low on March 9. Governments have poured about $2 trillion of stimulus into the global economy while central banks have cut interest rates to close to zero in efforts to revive growth.

“In the short run we need monetary and fiscal stimulus to avoid another tipping point and to avoid deflation, but now this easy money has already started to create asset bubbles in equities, commodities, credit and emerging markets,” Roubini said. “For the sake of achieving growth stability again and avoiding deflation, we may be planting the seeds of the next cycle of financial instability.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Shamim Adam in Istanbul at sadam2@bloomberg.net; Francine Lacqua in Istanbul at flacqua@bloomberg.net

BOSTON, Uoči početka sezone objavljiivanje kvartalnih izvještaja većina analitičara očekuje da američke kompanije neće razočarati svoje ulagače.
Stručnjaci su mišljenja da je rast američke privrede u trećem kvartalu pozitivno uticao na rezultate poslovanja tamošnjih kompanija, pogotovo na rast prihoda, prenosi Reuters.

”Prihodi su ključni, te mislim da će nas poprilično iznenaditi”, rekao je Jeff Kleintop, analitičar LPL Financiala iz Bostona. “Prihodi kompanija u trećem su tromjesečju zasigurno porasli usporedno s rastom BDP-a, a to bi moglo biti ono na što će se usredotočiti ulagači”, dodao je Kleintop.

Sve zavisi šta je mali Perica očekivao za rođendan.

Evo još jednog BEAR analitičara... Kažu da često greši!

Prechter Says Stocks Are Poised for ‘Major Decline’ (Update1)
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By Rita Nazareth

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks may suffer a “major decline” after climbing to the highest levels in almost a year two weeks ago, according to Robert Prechter, founder of Elliott Wave International Inc.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably fall “substantially below” 676.53, the 12-year low reached on March 9, he said. The measure surged as much as 58 percent to 1,071.66 in the ensuing seven months on signs the recession is ending. His projection implies a drop of more than 34 percent from last week’s close. Technical analysis, Prechter’s field since 1975, involves making predictions based on price and volume history.

“Stocks are very overvalued,” Prechter, who advised betting against U.S. equities three months before the market peaked in October 2007, said in an Oct. 1 telephone interview. “Stocks peaked in September and are back in a bear market.”

Prechter’s forecasts have had mixed results. While the former rock-and-roll drummer achieved fame for predicting a stock market crash two weeks before Black Monday in 1987, his standing suffered in the 1990s because he missed the almost decade-long bull market. In December 2002, he said the Dow Jones Industrial Average would fall below 1,000. It hasn’t dipped below 6,000 since then, climbing 25 percent in 2003 and then another 35 percent through Oct. 9, 2007.

Manufacturing, Employment

U.S. stocks fell last week, giving the S&P 500 its first two-week decline since July, after manufacturing expanded less than anticipated and unemployment climbed to a 26-year high, spurring concern the economy is rebounding slower than forecast.

The S&P 500’s seven-month advance pushed its price-to- earnings ratio to the highest levels since 2004. The measure was valued at 20.2 times its companies’ reported operating profits on Sept. 22, according to Bloomberg data.

Prechter, 60, said he’s basing his prediction for a decline on chart patterns, dividend yields and extreme levels of investor optimism. The combined dividend yield for the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is too low at 2.94 percent, he said, citing an analysis of the 1929 market peak.

“Stocks are still in the most expensive area in history,” he said.

Investors Intelligence’s analysis of investment newsletters last week showed 50.6 percent of writers were bullish. That’s near the level for the week through Aug. 25, when the majority turned bullish for the first time since December 2007.

Wave Theory

Prechter is an advocate of the Elliott Wave Theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. Elliott concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, agrees with Prechter that stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.

“Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul on Oct. 3. “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.”

Stocks, commodities and real-estate will suffer from a rebound in the U.S. dollar, Prechter said.

“I’m very bullish on the dollar,” he said. “There’s extreme pessimism, and that usually marks a bottom.”

The Dollar Index, uses to track the currency against those of six major American trading partners, dropped to 76.05 on Sept. 23, the lowest level in more than a year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at rnazareth@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 5, 2009 07:45 EDT

To su poklonici Elliott Wave teorije. A da često greši, siguran sam, kao uostalom i svi koji daju kratkoročne prognoze :D

E sad, da je precenjeno USA tržište, jeste... Nisu tako daleko od istorijskih maksimuma koliko bi trebali da budu, s obzirom na razmere krize. A kada će korekcija, to je pitanje vremena. Kojeg će intenziteta da bude, to niko ne može da predvidi. Sve zavisi kakve će vesti vesti da budu u narednom periodu, i kakvi će biti kvartalni izveštaji. Što bolji rezultati budu, analitičari će povisiti svoja očekivanja za sledeći kvartal, tako da bi ova spirala navodno dobrih vesti (odnosno, kako oni stalno govore "bolje od očekivanih", a svakako su se očekivali loši rezultati) morala da se prekine, pre ili kasnije. Jer manje loše od lošeg je još uvek loše :D

Za Beleks i precenjenost hartija još uvek ne moramo da brinemo, a za svetske trendove i te kako moramo da brinemo. Ako njih pogodi značajnija korekcij, nama ne gine veći pad od njihovog.

Pa, kome verovati? Ja sam sklon da poverujem Nurijelu Rubiniju. Korekcije ce biti, i to ozbiljne, ali da li ce bas SP500 pasti "znacajno ispod" martovskog dna(!!) ne bih se usudio da prognoziram. To bi onda znacilo da imamo double dip recession. Ne usudjujem se ni da mislim o tome. U svakom slucaju, treba biti jako oprezan u narednim mesecima.

Odose Ameri...

Gde odose?

U zeleni talas. :bounce:

Idu negde, videcemo gde ce da stignu. :D

ma neidu nigde samo duvaju

Samo neka duvaju i gruvaju. :sunc:

Volim kad ih gledam takve.

koje danas kupio sutra je zaradiooooooooo jupiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii!!!!!!!
Tosta je bilo padanja idemu sutra posle 10h 30h gore!

Ko garantuje da ce kod nas sutra biti zeleno?

Date Time (ET) Statistic For Actual Briefing Forecast
Oct 5 10:00 AM ISM Services Sep 50.9 49.0

Ove nedelje se ne očekuje puno makroekonomskih podataka. Ovaj gore je najvažniji i on je dobar. Videćemo u sredu početak kvartalnih izveštaja kompanija. Analitičari su predvideli veći pad profita, pa mislim da kompanije neće podbaciti u odnosu na ta predvidjanja koja su ukalkulisana u cene.

iki ::

Ko garantuje da ce kod nas sutra biti zeleno?

Ma niko, naravno, ovo je samo malo euforije na forumu. Kada je berza pala 5,49% u prosli petak, svi su drhtali od straha. Na predvidjanja Nurijela Rubinija se ovde malo ko osvrce, a videli smo - kada je Wall Street pao 2%, Belex se sunovratio.

ISM report je dobar, cinjenica, videcemo ostatak.