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 Duplo dno: da ili ne?

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Da li će biti "duplog dna"
DA
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NE
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PočaljiNaslov: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:19

Kažu istorija se ponavlja. Stoga i ova tema sa pitanjem

Da li se efekat "duplog dna" može desiti kao i više puta do sada i u kom periodu bi se to moglo desiti?

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Poslednji izmenio prevarant dana 8/19/2009, 11:06, izmenjeno ukupno 1 puta
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:22

Iskreno verujem da se to ovog puta nece desiti,ali nije iskljucen i takav scenario. :evil:
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:23

Već sam se izjasnio na tablama:

Može se desiti, što da ne? Nalet mnogo loših vesti i eto nas na double dip-u :D Ja verujem u teoriju random walk-a tržišta, odnosno, kretanja koje nije u skladu ni sa čim uobičajenim i "šabloniranim" :D

I da eksplicitno kažem: neće biti duplog dna, ovog puta.

PS, postavi glasanje u temu (edit poruke pa imaš opciju da ubaciš glasanje).
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:27

a duplo dno sta znaci da naredno dno koje sada moze da se desi da bude ispod onog u martu ili iznad? Vecina ljudi sa kojima sam pricao Investitora u Srbiji i Americi misle da bi trebalo da se dva puta dno dotakne i onda uzlet nezaustavan!
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:28

Jedno pitanje tehničke prirode: da li drugo dno (ako smo jedno već doživeli) mora da bude iste dubine ili dublje od prvog? Ili može da bude recimo na polovine ovog rasta od prvog dna?

Sad kad sam postavio pitanje, zvuči mi malo glupo... Pa ako je samo na pola rasta, onda nije dno, nego korekcija...

U svakom slučaju, ako mora da bude iste dubine ili dublje, ja mislim da ga neće biti! :)
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:30

Stefane isto pitanje u isto vreme
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 10:33

He,he svi se NADAMO da ga neće biti,
ali isto tako 2007 niko nije ni pominjao nikakvo dno. :D :D :D
Sve je u igri ali se i ja NADAM da neće biti.
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 12:07

Gotovo sigurno nece ga biti. Mislim da se sve vesti pre nego sto se uopste puste procene kakav i koliki efekat ce imati na trzista i da je u interesu velikih spekulanata da bude vise korekcija, kao i da bas zbog toga teraju pricu da ce oporavak biti dug i da ce tu biti problema, pa se svaki dan nadje neki ekspert da obeshrabri/ ohrabri , sve po potrebi :D
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/19/2009, 12:28

moze da se gleda i ovako:
Belex 15 - 22.12.2008 - 474.56
27.1.2009 - 549.15 - rast od 15,7% (nije dovoljno za bull market (manje od 20%)), i onda dolazi duplo dno - 11.3.2009 - 354.39
onda bi danas bilo trece dno, zar ne?
ja iskreno ne verujem u jos jedno dno, jer smo prenisko otisli, mozda je S&P500 iznad uobicajenog P/E, ali nas P/E je zvanicno oko 7 (podatak sa belex.rs), a vecina likvidnih akcija je na P/E izmedju 5 i 10 (AIKB je na 3.3), s tim sto estimated earnings nisu nizi nego za proslu godinu :), pa ni FP/E nije iznad 7,8

zakljucak - ne verujem u trece dno, a normalno je da trziste seta gore-dole, inace ga ne bi bilo (zasto bi neko kupio akcije kompanije XXXX po ceni YYY, da bi ih kasnije prodao po istoj YYY ceni, bolje da je drzao pare ispod jastuka, zar ne?)
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/20/2009, 17:57

vidim da ste svi povučeni skorašnjom naglom korekcijom svoje komentare usresredili na aktuelna dešavanja. međutim, meni su ona bila samo povod za razmišljanje o nečemu što bi moglo eventualno da se desi u nekih narednih 8-12 meseci. ne bi bilo prvi put da se nakon oporavka i dužeg trenda rasta ponovi žestok pad. mnogi analitičari smatraju da su periodi setembar-novembar i mart-maj kritični po ovom stvari, pa se i moje pitanje odnosilo na mogućnost takvog scenarija.

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/20/2009, 18:05

Šta bi po tvome mogao da bude "okidač" za takav novi pad?

Kako sada stvari stoje, sledi nam izlaz iz recesije i blagi privredni rast u toku 2010. godine. Mislim da bi trebalo nešto jako loše da se desi pa da opet osetimo one martovske i niže nivoe.

Ja kao potencijalan problem vidim ovaj aranžman sa MMF-om, ali verovatno nedovoljan razlog za strmoglavi pad.

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/20/2009, 19:17

čitajući komentare nekih svetskih ekonomista izgleda da mogućnost za tako nešto postoji. ona se bazira na tome da svi željno očekujemo izlazak iz ove situacije. to dovodi do preuveličavanja trenutnih pokazatelja pa samim tim i do prenaglašenog optimizma. tako recimo sa oduševljenjem se govori o izlasku iz recesije nekih zemalja iz EU, iako mnogi upozoravaju da jedan kvartal nije dovoljan za takvu tvrdnju, pogotovo što svi smatraju da će se trend otpuštanja radnika zasigurno nastaviti. najveća opasnost možda leži u tome da vlade najrazvijenijih zemalja prerano obustave borbu, jer ako kola krenu nizbrdo, zbog nagomilanog straha, dugova i ekonomske iscrpljenosti, teško da bi ih iko zaustavio na martovskom nivou. iako sve ovo zvuči kao čist psihološki razlog, takav scenario je već viđen.

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/20/2009, 20:00

Mišljenje nam se često menja u skladu sa tržišnim kretanjima. Danas vidimo sjajnu atmosferu na forumu, pre svega zbog opšteg rasta cena akcija :D A kada padaju cene, niko se ne javlja, opšta depresija.

Neki bi ti sada rekli, "nemoj mračiti", ja volim čuti/pročitati mišljenje koje se ne poklapa sa mojim. Pogotovo ako se iznesu argumenti. Jeste problem rast nezaposlenosti, ni meni nisu baš sjajni ovi "izlasci" iz recesije zapadnih zemalja. Ja se oslanjam na zemlje u razvoju, odnosno BRIC zemlje, tu pre svega na Kinu i Indiju, koje neće imati problema sa rastom i recesijom. U Kini stimulativni paket daje sjajne rezultate (bar prema podacima koje nam daju). Njihove berze su ostvarile munjeviti rast u poslednje vreme, možda čak i preteran u odnosu na same vesti na koje pozitivno reaguju.

Ima na zapadu trenutno dosta problema. Vidimo kako Kinezi bukvalno finansiraju Ameriku već neki duži period, a i štamparije rade punom parom i upumpava se novac u sistem. Juče se oglasio i Voren Bafet sa zabrinutošću zbog enormnog budžetskog deficita, koji dostiže, ako se ne varam, 13% američkog BDP-a ove godine. U budućemo periodu bi svakako trebali da rade na smanjenju trgovinske neravnoteže, pre svega sa Kinom, preduzeti mere da ne dođe do hiperinflacije i devaluacije dolara (dolar kao rezervna valuta je isto tako jedan veliki budući problem američke administracije). Puno izazova je pred njima, a i nama, pošto sve to jako utiče na nas. Dosta puta do sada su se izvlačili, tako da sam uveren, da će se i ovoga puta snaći, uprkos svemu. I ranije je bilo dosta kriznih perioda, i isto tako su bile ovakve ili slične priče, i opet je svet nastavljao po starom. Berze su padale, a kasnije se oporavljale i prelazile istorijske maksimume, verujem da će tako biti i sada.

Sada čitam šta sam sve napisao, i nemam nekih posebnih argumenata osim oslanjanja na istoriju :D Da pomenem malo i neke ohrabrujuće činjenice. Pre svega, većina finansijskih rezultata kompanija su prevazišla očekivanja analitičara. To je ostvareno zahvaljujući smanjenju troškova, kao i radne snage (što opet, negativno utiče na opštu potrošnju i nezaposlenost), ali takođe su i poslovni prihodi mahom bolji nego što su analitičari očekivali. Sa druge strane, imamo, opet bolje nego što smo očekivali, izveštaje o rastu, odnosno padu, BDP, te da se u većini zemalja sveta očekuje rast BDP-a u 2010. To su neki od optimističnih podataka koji mene ohrabruju, gore pomenuto me zabrinjava, ali opšteg sam mišljenja da ovog duplog dna neće biti.
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/20/2009, 20:42

duplo dno, DA.

vrlo verovatna W recesija.. i jos puno sranja na vidiku

google-ujte samo commercial real estate.. taj balon jos nije pukao+

svinjski grip vise niko ne spominje, a Meksiko je dnevno gubio 0.25 posto BDP-a jer niko u zemlji nije radio, a ide jesen i zima
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/24/2009, 08:21

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus.

The global economy will bottom out in the second half of 2009, Roubini wrote in a Financial Times commentary today. The recession in the U.S., the U.K., and some European countries will not be “formally over” before the end of the year, while the recovery has started in nations such as China, France, Germany, Australia and Japan, he said.

Governments around the world have pledged about $2 trillion in stimulus measures amid the worst worldwide recession since the Great Depression. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other global policy makers have cautioned that the recovery is likely to be muted, indicating they would not soon remove all the stimulus injected into the financial system.

“There are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing,” Roubini wrote. “Policy makers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

Government and central bank officials may undermine the recovery and tip their economies back into “stagdeflation” if they raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity in their systems to reduce fiscal deficits, Roubini says. He defines “stagdeflation” as recession and deflation.

Market Vigilantes

Those who maintain large budget deficits will be punished by bond market vigilantes, as inflationary expectations and yields on long-term government bonds rise and borrowing costs climb sharply, he wrote. That will in turn lead to stagflation, Roubini said.

European Central Bank officials led by President Jean- Claude Trichet are suggesting they won’t rush to reverse their emergency stimulus amid mounting evidence of an economic recovery. The ECB has cut its benchmark interest rate to a record 1 percent and is buying covered bonds and flooding banks with money.

“We see some signs confirming that the real economy is starting to get out of the period of freefall,” Trichet said at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Aug. 22. This “does not mean at all that we do not have a very bumpy road ahead of us.”

When needed, the ECB will implement a “credible exit strategy” from its crisis policies, Trichet said.

‘Monetary Medicine’

The U.S. must address the massive amounts of “monetary medicine” that have been pumped into the financial system and now pose threats to the economy and the dollar, billionaire Warren Buffett said last week.

Roubini currently expects a U-shaped recovery, where growth will be “anemic and below trend for at least a couple of years,” he said. A full global recovery from the current recession may take two years or more, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman said earlier this month.

Rising unemployment, a global financial system that is still “severely damaged” and weak corporate profitability are among reasons why any recovery won’t be V-shaped, Roubini said.

“Strains persist in many financial markets across the globe,” Bernanke said in an Aug. 21 speech in Jackson Hole. “The economic recovery is likely to be relatively slow at first, with unemployment declining only gradually from high levels.”

Energy and food prices are also rising faster than warranted by economic fundamentals, which may also increase the risk of a double-dip recession, Roubini wrote, adding that they could be driven by speculative trades.

“Last year, oil at $145 a barrel was a tipping point for the global economy as it created negative terms of trade and a disposable income shock for oil-importing economies,” he said. “The global economy could not withstand another contractionary shock if similar speculation drives oil rapidly toward $100 a barrel.”

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/24/2009, 13:01

NEW YORK - Nouriel Roubini, njujorški sveučilišni profesor, koji je predvidio financijsku krizu, ovaj put najavljuje da raste mogućnost nove recesije, zbog rizika povezanih s krajem stimulansa u globalnom monetarnom te financijskom sektoru.

“Postoje rizici vezani za strategiju izlaska iz modela ogromnih monetarnih i fiskalnih olakšica', upozorava Roubini koji slikovito kaže da će čelnici biti prokleti ako ne odustanu od pomoći, ali će ih se također proklinjati i ako s tom politikom nastave.
Vlade i središnje banke mogle bi potkopati oporavak i uputiti ekonomije svojih zemalja nazad u 'stagdeflaciju', ako podignu poreze, smanje potrošnju i podignu nelikvidnost u svojim redovima kako bi smanjili deficite, upozorio je Roubini. Svoju kovanicu 'stegdeflacija' objasnio kao kombinaciju recesije i deflacije.

Oni koji zadrže velike deficite proračuna bit će kažnjeni na tržištu obveznica, s obzirom na očekivanja inflatornih učinaka i prinosa na dugoročna ulaganja u državne obveznice, koja rastu, a i skaču troškovi zaduživanja. 'Navedeni potezi dovest će nazad u stagdeflaciju', zaključio je profesor.

:titanic:

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   8/24/2009, 13:10

@prevarant ::
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said the chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus.

The global economy will bottom out in the second half of 2009, Roubini wrote in a Financial Times commentary today. The recession in the U.S., the U.K., and some European countries will not be “formally over” before the end of the year, while the recovery has started in nations such as China, France, Germany, Australia and Japan, he said.

Governments around the world have pledged about $2 trillion in stimulus measures amid the worst worldwide recession since the Great Depression. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other global policy makers have cautioned that the recovery is likely to be muted, indicating they would not soon remove all the stimulus injected into the financial system.

“There are risks associated with exit strategies from the massive monetary and fiscal easing,” Roubini wrote. “Policy makers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t.”

Government and central bank officials may undermine the recovery and tip their economies back into “stagdeflation” if they raise taxes, cut spending and mop up excess liquidity in their systems to reduce fiscal deficits, Roubini says. He defines “stagdeflation” as recession and deflation. ”

He, he Kobe jel to prelaziš u prevodioce. :D :D :D
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/2/2009, 09:29

Alo ljudi

Da čujem koliko su vas uplašila najnovija dešavanja na Zapadu.

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/2/2009, 09:30

Ma kakvo duplo dno... Uopšte se ne brinem! :)
Ali ja sam daleko od pametnog čoveka...

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/2/2009, 09:31

J.... zapad ovo je Srbija.Nas nista vise ne moze iznenaditi.IDEMO DALJE ali gore u zeleno
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/2/2009, 10:24

Ne moze ni biti duplo, kada smo jos uvek na dnu! Drugo je zapad, oni su vratili cene uglavnom svih boljik kompanije na nivo od jeseni 2008. i sada mora de se malo strahuje. Kod nas je jos sve ispod cene i nema razloga za brigu! ☀
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/2/2009, 22:36

Goldman Sachs Wrong on Economic Recovery, Macro Hedge Funds Say
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By Cristina Alesci

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Paul Tudor Jones, the billionaire hedge-fund manager who outperformed peers last year, is wagering that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley got it wrong in declaring the start of an economic recovery.

Jones’s Tudor Investment Corp., Clarium Capital Management LLC and Horseman Capital Management Ltd. are taking a bearish stand as U.S. stock and bond prices rise, saying that record government spending may be forestalling another slowdown and market selloff. The firms oversee a combined $15 billion in so- called macro funds, which seek to profit from economic trends by trading stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities.

“If we have a recovery at all, it isn’t sustainable,” Kevin Harrington, managing director at Clarium, said in an interview at the firm’s New York offices. “This is more likely a ski-jump recession, with short-term stimulus creating a bump that will ultimately lead to a more precipitous decline later.”

Equity and credit markets have rallied on hopes that government intervention is pulling the U.S. out of the deepest economic slump since the Great Depression. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index jumped 51 percent from its 12-year low in March through yesterday.

The economy will expand at an annualized rate of 2 percent or more in four straight quarters through June 2010, the first such streak in more than four years, according to the median estimate of at least 53 forecasters in a Bloomberg survey.

Tudor, the Greenwich, Connecticut-based firm started by Jones in the early 1980s, told clients in an Aug. 3 letter that the stock market’s climb was a “bear-market rally.” Weak growth in household income was among the reasons to be dubious about the rebound’s chances of survival, Tudor said.

Yields Drop

Yields on corporate bonds relative to U.S. Treasury benchmarks have sunk to levels unseen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September, a positive sign for credit markets. Spreads on junk bonds fell in July to within 10 percentage points of Treasuries, lifting them out of the distressed category for the first time in almost a year.

“We think the recession is ending right now,” Abby Joseph Cohen, senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview Aug. 17. The New York-based bank forecasts 2 percent growth in U.S. gross domestic product in 2010.

Economists at New York-based Morgan Stanley in the past month have incrementally raised their GDP growth estimate for the current quarter to 4.8 percent annualized from 3.5 percent.

President Barack Obama said a decline in July’s unemployment rate signaled “the worst may be behind us.” GDP shrank 6.4 percent in the first quarter and 1 percent in the second, after a 4 percent contraction in the second half of 2008.

Different Jobless Rate

A focus on misleading indicators is driving markets, macro managers say.

Clarium watches the unemployment rate that accounts for discouraged job applicants and those working part-time because they can’t find full-time positions, Harrington said. July joblessness with those adjustments was 16 percent, according to the Department of Labor, rather than the more widely reported 9.4 percent.

The housing data isn’t as rosy as some see it, Harrington said. As existing U.S. home sales rose 7.2 percent in July from the previous month, distressed deals including foreclosures accounted for 31 percent of transactions, according to the National Association of Realtors, a Chicago-based trade group.

A report by the Mortgage Bankers Association, based in Washington, showed the share of home loans with one or more payments overdue rose to a seasonally adjusted 9.24 percent in the second quarter, an all-time high.

Loaded for Bear

Clarium, which oversees about $2 billion, is positioned for an equity bear market through investments in the U.S. dollar, Harrington said. Falling stock prices will strengthen the currency by forcing leveraged investors to sell equities to pay down the dollar-denominated debt they used to finance those trades, he said.

High unemployment, lower wages and potential missteps by policymakers around the globe may stifle economic growth in 2010, Tudor said. The firm, which manages $10.8 billion, is at odds with 55 economists projecting an average of 2.3 percent growth next year, according to the Bloomberg survey.

Macro managers’ pessimism is fueled in part by the U.S. government’s response to last year’s financial crisis, which they say fails to address the root cause. Banks still hold hard- to-sell assets on their balance sheets, the managers said.

Subdued Credit Growth

“Some critical initiatives have been cut short,” Tudor said. “As a result, toxic assets remain on balance sheets and credit growth is likely to be subdued for a long period.”

Some firms, including Brevan Howard Asset Management LLP, see the recession at its end while dismissing the likelihood of robust growth.

Brevan Howard, Europe’s largest hedge-fund manager with $24 billion in assets, told clients the U.S. could stumble when stimulus spending fades after the current quarter. The London- based firm, whose macro fund gained 20 percent last year, said consumer wealth erosion, scant bank lending and troubled world economies may result in a lackluster recovery.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other policy makers took unprecedented steps in the past year to stave off financial disaster. The Fed’s Board of Governors used emergency powers to rescue markets for commercial paper, housing bonds and asset- backed securities. The Fed’s balance sheet swelled to $2.08 trillion last week, more than doubling from a year earlier.

Accounting Effect

The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted in April to relax fair-value accounting rules. The change to mark-to-market accounting allowed companies to use “significant” judgment in gauging prices of some investments on their books, including mortgage-backed securities that plunged with the housing market.

Banks are reporting better earnings because they haven’t been forced to account for their losses yet, Clarium’s Harrington said.

“We haven’t fixed the problem,” he said. “We’ve just slowed down the official recognition of it.”

Hedge funds rose in July for the fifth consecutive month, returning an average of 2.4 percent as stocks advanced, according to data compiled by Hedge Fund Research Inc. Bearish stances prevented some macro funds from joining the rally. The category lagged behind the industry average in July, rising 0.6 percent.

Fund Performance

Clarium, whose assets were mostly in fixed income, dropped 6 percent this year through June. Horseman’s fund slid 16.3 percent. Tudor’s BVI Global Fund Ltd. returned 11 percent.

The funds held up in 2008 amid the industry’s record 19 percent loss. Horseman’s Global Fund USD, which focuses on stocks, made HSBC’s private bank list of top 20 performers by gaining 31 percent. Tudor’s and Clarium’s funds fell 4.5 percent.

Macro managers are examining China for hints on how to place currency and commodities bets. Tudor said the country’s spending spree on raw materials inflated commodity prices and weakened the U.S. dollar.

A government mandate forcing banks to make about $1 trillion in loans during this year’s first half is spurring short-term growth that may not last, according to Clarium. China’s banking regulator drafted capital requirements Aug. 19 that may lead banks to rein in lending.

Horseman, with $4.1 billion under management out of London, was investing in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds. The firm believes interest rates will stay low for longer than the market expects, benefiting the asset class.

“Despite every effort by government in North America and Europe to avoid deflation,” Horseman wrote, “the current numbers suggest they are losing the battle.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Cristina Alesci in New York at calesci2@bloomberg.net
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/4/2009, 18:42

Unemployment is expected to hit 10% by the end of the year or early 2010, even as the economy is starting to recover. Although a jobs recovery typically lags a broader recovery, the rise in unemployment remains the market's biggest economic worry right now.

Without a healthier labor market and a burst in consumer spending, inventory rebuilding and fiscal and monetary stimulus are the main factors fueling a recovery.

"In the last few weeks, we've gone from pricing in a recovery to worrying about a douple dip recession in 2010 when all the stimulus money gives out," said Kleintop.

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/11/2009, 13:20

Is this rally for real?
Stocks have been on a record run. We asked the experts where they go from here.

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- If you had the courage to buy stocks when the market hit bottom in March, congratulations! The S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial indexes are near highs for the year after soaring around 50% since then.

But if you've been waiting on the sidelines as improving unemployment, housing, and GDP numbers surprise Wall Street pros, you may now be wondering, Should I still buy in, or is the rally over?

To try to answer that question, we talked to some of the smartest market watchers we know. Despite some big worries about 2010, most expect the combination of market momentum and government stimulus spending to carry stocks higher for the rest of this year.

Let's start with the most enthusiastic, Laszlo Birinyi, founder of Birinyi Associates, who notes that the current rally is the strongest ever. Since hitting its closing low of 676 on March 9, the S&P 500 (SPX) has risen 0.31% a day on average, he says. That is three times faster than the previous fastest recovery in 1982, which averaged a 0.12% per day rise. "This is the Usain Bolt of markets," Birinyi says. "We just blew through the records."

Birinyi, who warned his clients in October 2007 of impending doom in bank stocks, expects more gains this year, in part because "no one is calling this a bull market." Negative sentiment, of course, is a classic contrarian indicator that stocks will keep climbing. Birinyi advises buying S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) to take advantage of the broad market rally.

Longtime bear Steve Leuthold, chairman of influential research firm The Leuthold Group, also takes comfort in the widespread fear of stocks. He sees the S&P index reaching 1200 to 1250 by year-end, a 20% jump from its current level of about 1000.

Leuthold, who was bearish most of this decade, says stocks are fairly priced now but will keep rising because they usually overshoot normal valuations in a recovery. "There's money to be made over the next six months," says Andy Engel, a portfolio manager at Leuthold Group.

Jeremy Grantham, the chairman of money management firm GMO, who encouraged his clients to buy stocks on March 10 with a note titled "Reinvesting When Terrified,'' says the S&P 500's fair value is 880 based on earnings estimates and historical P/E ratios.

Even so, Grantham thinks the index "can go quite a lot further in the next two or three months." He says the recent rally has not been based on fundamentals. Instead, the government's stimulus plan and bailouts of banks and carmakers artificially inflated sectors of the economy.

Grantham likes to compare today's market rise with the 1930 rally that followed the crash of 1929. That 47% surge came without bank bailouts and stimulus spending. "If you turn on the moral-hazard juice and stimulus, which we did this time, [the market] is entitled to do a whole lot more than 47%," he says.

Grantham thinks the S&P could rise to 1130 by year-end. But his longer-term view is cautious. He warns that the market may again fall below its March low before resuming tepid growth. Grantham advises buying U.S. blue chips for what he predicts to be "seven lean years'' for stocks.

Back in January, Bob Doll, global chief investment officer of equities at BlackRock, saw the potent combination of low interest rates and an expected wave of government stimulus spending. Doll, who oversees $400 billion in equities, forecast that the S&P 500 would end the year between 1000 and 1050. Now that the index has entered that range, he says that stocks could dip 10% at some point before year-end, since skittish investors are ready to sell on any disappointing economic data.

That would be a buying opportunity. In the short-term, says Doll, slow economic growth will help stocks by keeping inflation in check. In the first three quarters of a recovery, he says, GDP typically grows at a 6.7% rate.

For the current recovery BlackRock expects the rate to be half that. Doll recommends buying high-quality stocks -- those with strong franchises and solid balance sheets -- in health care, energy, and technology.

A more somber view comes from Robert Shiller, the Yale economics professor famous for calling the stock market and housing bubbles. He already considers stocks overpriced based on his P/E calculation, which averages earnings over 10 years.

And factoring in problems like still-troubled bank balance sheets and government stimulus propping up bad businesses, he says, "the stock market is not looking so enticing right now. It's already a little pricey, so the expected return is probably not the historical average."

Back to our question: Should you buy stocks today? For starters, don't expect the market to maintain the dizzying pace of the past few months. But don't hoard all your money and wait for a big pullback.

As always, the most sensible approach is to put money in at regular intervals, a strategy that lets you both participate in the rallies and buy on the dips.

First Published: September 10, 2009: 1:04 PM ET

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   9/13/2009, 11:59

10 Bubbles In The Making

http://www.businessinsider.com/bubbles-in-the-making-2009-9#the-china-bubble-1
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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   10/9/2009, 08:49

Da li vas je prošli petak povukao u razmišljanje o double-deep-u ???

Svi smo osetili kako bi izgledao njegov početak. A šta tek mislite koliko bi mu katastrofićno izgledao kraj?

E toga se ja bojim ali ne pre februara sledeće godine.

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PočaljiNaslov: Re: Duplo dno: da ili ne?   10/10/2009, 19:09

Kako je rekao multimilijarder investitor Carl Icahn - double dip bi bio "investor bloodbath".
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