Dow 10,000 - Springboard or Final Kiss Good Bye?

* By Simon Maierhofer
* On 11:32 am EDT, Friday October 9, 2009


What would you like to hear first, the good news or the bad news?

Well, the good news is that we are approaching Dow 10,000. The bad news is that Dow 10,000 may be nothing more than a good selling opportunity.

On March 9th, the Wall Street Journal ran an article titled 'Dow 5,000? There's A Case For It.' The Dow (DJI: ^DJI) bottomed that very day at 6,440, along with the S&P 500 (SNP: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC), and went on to rally for seven consecutive months.

Fast forward to September 17th, when the Wall Street Journal ran an article titled 'The Dow Will Hit 10,000 Soon. So What?' It's too soon to say with certainty that the market has topped, but we can already see that the Dow has dropped several hundred points since then and has yet to ring the 10,000 bell.

Admittedly, using the Wall Street Journal's prowess (or lack thereof) in forecasting market trends is not the most academically correct gauge. Nevertheless, it illustrates how the financial media tends to jump on a trend wholeheartedly just before it reverses (more about that in a moment). Needless to say, this causes much anguish, irritation, and losses for investors.

Unlike the Wall Street Journal and Wall Street in general - which was stuck in a self-pity party around the March lows - the ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter went against the grain and sent out a Trend Change Alert on March 2nd.

The arrival of this alert in subscriber's e-mail boxes was no surprise, as the newsletter had already predicted a bottom below Dow 6,700 earlier in 2009. The Trend Change Alert predicted a persistent and powerful multi-month rally that would push the Dow Jones (NYSEArca: DIA - News) into the 9,000 - 10,000 range.

ETFs recommended included plain vanilla ETFs like the S&P 500 SPDRs (NYSEArca: SPY - News) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: QQQQ - News). Sector ETFs like the Financial Select Sector SPDRs (NYSEArca: XLF - News) and leveraged ETFs like the Ultra Financial ProShares (NYSEArca: UYG - News).

Trend-chasers - the blind leading the blind

We've seen in 2007 and 2009 that blindly following the so-called expert advice coming from Wall Street and the media, enticed investors to buy towards a market top and sell towards a market bottom.

To create a blind leading the blind scenario, two components have to be in place. You need a 'blind' entity or group of people willing to lead, and another willing to follow. We all know the end result of the blind leading the blind - they both fall into a pit - so why would anyone follow a blind leader? In short, it's all about perception. Perceived leadership qualities and a subsequent vortex of peer pressure often persuade even the smartest of individuals to follow a blind leader.

Before we discuss the applicability of this phenomenon for the average Joe, let's take a moment to illustrate the basic concept of blind faith. Imagine you are rich. Imagine all your friends are rich. Imagine your friends tell you about an investment guru who will double your money every five years without any risk.

Obviously you are suspicious and want to ask questions. This suspicion, however, makes you appear unintelligent towards your friends because they've been doubling their money for years. In fact, they've done you a favor by introducing you to their guru who accepts clients by invitation only.

You've been given a once in a life-time opportunity and would be a moron if you turned it down. Peer pressure outweighs your gut, it-sounds-to-good-to-be-true', feeling; you are now ready to start doubling your money without risk, too. Can't happen you say. It did happen; ask all the sophisticated investors who lost millions with Bernie Madoff.

If it's too obvious, it's obviously wrong

The money-losing cycle for the average Joe investor and even educated money managers, starts with the financial media. As the Wall Street Journal headline (Dow 5,000? There's A Case For It) shows, the media was expecting even lower prices following the March lows.

As stocks rallied, the mood of the media lightened up as well. The surge in optimism from the March lows to the September highs happened in baby steps. Initially, in March and April there were signs that the government stimulus might be working.

This was followed by rare green shoots. A bit later, fertilized by rising stock prices, green shoots were popping up all over the place. Even higher stock prices brought about the notion of a jobless recovery. Wall Street now believes that the green shoots have matured into full blown plants. The recovery is here to stay, they say.

All the yo-yos, who never saw the 2007 meltdown coming and thought things would get even worse in March, are saying that the bear market is over and the V-shaped recovery is well under way. Where were they when we needed them?

Buy high, sell low

The chart below shows how the percentage of bullish advisors hit rock-bottom during the March lows and inclined - along with rising prices - ever since. Bullishness tends to piggy back on rising stocks, until extreme bullishness, all of a sudden, becomes a contrarian indicator.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter had warned of the elevated levels of optimism seen earlier in January and recommended to buy short ETFs. Following the secondary January highs, stock prices plummeted 30% in 90 days.

Ironically as it may seem, extreme levels of bullishness becomes like a noose around the neck of the very bulls supporting that trend.

Getting a read on the market

Extreme levels of optimism reflect the morphosis from wanna-be stock buyers to owners. When owners outweigh potential buyers, the pipeline of new buyers dries up to a point where there's not enough buying volume to drive up prices any further. This is compounded by the fact that owners are reduced to either holding or selling, neither of which can propel prices.

As the base of stock owners has become un-proportionately high, an impending down-trend is inevitable. Profit taking will get the stone rolling. As prices start to decline, more stops will be triggered and selling will become the new trend. The unusual high level of stock ownership provides a consistent flow of stocks being put up for sale, resulting in rapidly declining prices.

In August and September, the Investors Intelligence survey of investment advisors, registered the highest levels of optimism seen since the 2007 all-time market high. Such levels are almost always indicative of lower prices to come. The scope of optimism suggests that significantly lower prices are looming on the horizon.

This interpretation of investor sentiment is confirmed by valuation metrics with a track record of historic accuracy.

Overvalued is an understatement

There are different ways to determine the stock markets real value. P/E ratios and dividend yields are the most commonly used valuation metrics.

The chart above reveals two key factors:

1) Based on P/E ratios, the stock market is grossly overvalued, even at current prices. As per Standard & Poor's research, the Q3 2009 P/E ratio is 138.97. Historically, a P/E ratio north of 20 is viewed as expensive. Also, historically, the market almost always corrects within a year of a 20+ P/E ratio. Imagine the impact of a 140 P/E ratio.

2) The chart clearly shows that the stock market does not bottom unless P/E ratios completely reset (indicated by the red line). This was true in the 40s, 50s, 70s and 80s. In 2002 valuations were not reset. As we now know, the 2002 lows did not last. Earlier this year, valuations were not reset either. The implications are clear.

Just as ice does not thaw unless temperatures rise above 32 degrees, the stock market does not bottom unless P/E ratios (and dividend yields) fall below the reset levels, which in turn triggers a sustainable rally.

Dow 10,000 - more than just a number

Aside from the psychological effect Dow 10,000 has, there are a number of resistance levels that meet within a few hundred points of this magical level. Dow 9,456 marks the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March lows, while Dow 10,355 marks the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the March lows.

The 50% retracement level might be of import as the biggest rally during the Great Depression turned into the biggest sucker rally right after the 50% Fibonacci retracement was met. Based on historic clues, Dow 10,000 +/- is likely to be the highest level investors will see for years.

How low do stocks have to drop before a real bottom and fair valuations can be found? The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter contains a detailed analysis of P/E ratios, dividend yields, investor sentiment and the Dow measured in the only true currency - gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News) - along with a target level for the ultimate market bottom and weekly guidance through the stock market's long journey ahead.

Icahn: Risk of Double Dip, Investor 'Bloodbath'
Published: Friday, 9 Oct 2009 | 8:03 AM ET
Text Size
By: Robin Knight
Assistant Web Producer

There is a real risk of a double-dip recession and the market is acting in a "schizophrenic" way, which could cause a "bloodbath" for investors, billionaire investor Carl Icahn told CNBC Friday.

Carl Icahn
Shiho Fukada / AP
Carl Icahn

"If you get a double-dip recession and they start coming down, it's going to be a bit of a bloodbath," Icahn said.

"The amateur investor is going to get hit badly again because they're pouring money into these funds. Some of these funds managers I do not think are experienced enough to handle some of the distressed stuff they're buying and they're going to get burned," he said.

Icahn said he still sees investment opportunities in advertising, telecom, the Internet and bankruptcies. But making money out of bankruptcies should only be attempted by the experts, he said.

Second Opinions:

* Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio Manager
* Art Cashin: Falling Dollar Can Crash Markets a la 2008

"We're quite involved in the secular change in the way advertising is going to be done. Obviously the cell-phone business is a growth business," he said.

"You've got secular changes that are hitting the world, especially in the way we buy. So the Internet, I don't have to say - it's obvious, is the great new thing. And advertising on the Internet as apposed to printed media," he added.

Meanwhile, real estate is a perfect example of a good market to short, according to Icahn.

Icahn said he questions why "any individual in their right mind" would buy into Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT). Investors could never liquidate the underlying value of the buildings on their portfolios, he said.

"I think there's overcapacity in the office market and in shopping centers because you have a secular change in the way retailers are behaving and the way consumers are behaving," he added.

There are still opportunities in the debt markets, but "it's not what it was," he said.

Precarious Position

The economy is in a precarious position and the outlook for consumer confidence and unemployment remains bleak, according to Icahn.

RELATED LINKS

Current DateTime: 12:02:31 09 Oct 2009
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* Stocks Can Keep Rallying: Jim Rogers
* Tips: Recovery Not Sustainable, Hedge Now
* Get the Latest US Headlines

"I think that you have to be cautious. It's on a precipice right now and it could really go either way," he said.

Icahn warned against seeing the recent stock rally as a sign that the economy has turned a corner.

"It's a myth to say the market is a good indicator of the economy. I think individuals are much more of an indictor," he said.

"The market is schizophrenic at this point. So you have trillions of dollars literally in consumers hands, they don't want to spend it, they're afraid to spend it," he added.

Yahoo, Microsoft Deal

Icahn, who owns a stake in Yahoo, [YHOO 16.928 -0.652 (-3.71%) ] thinks the Internet search firm is in a "great" secular area. And Carol Bartz, the company’s new president and CEO, is a "real operator" who is "getting things done," he said.

"It cannot compete with a giant like Google [GOOG 518.205 4.025 (+0.78%) ] and a giant like Microsoft [MSFT 25.595 -0.075 (-0.29%) ]. And you can't let ego get in your way and say: "We're Yahoo and we can compete," Icahn told CNBC.

"I think Google and Microsoft are going to be these two huge dinosaurs. I don't want to call them dinosaurs, but these behemoths that are going to war with each other," he said.

The Internet search deal between Microsoft and Yahoo, which sees Microsoft's Bing search engine power the Yahoo Web site, was a "great deal," according to Icahn.

"I think Wall Street hasn't really appreciated how great that deal is," he said.



© 2009 CNBC.com

Dow Will Fall to 6,300 by Year End: Portfolio Manager
Published: Monday, 5 Oct 2009 | 6:29 PM ET
Text Size
By: JeeYeon Park
CNBC News Associate

With the prospect of higher unemployment hanging over the markets, some experts expect a correction. So are they right? Michael Cuggino, president and portfolio manager at Permanent Portfolio Funds, and John Lekas, CEO and portfolio manager at Leader Capital, shared their insights. (See their recommendations, below.)

“I think we go below the double dip,” Lekas told CNBC. “By year-end, we drop below 6,300 on the Dow and by 2011, we’re at 4,200.”

Lekas said although Monday's ISM services index was “neutral,” the unemployment number was at 785,000 last month and that number is expected to worsen.

“So 26 to 27 million people who are out of work isn’t going to help the economy,” he said. “And until that number gets better, we will not see a recovery.”

Lekas told investors to sell equities, buy short-term fixed income, stay with high quality names and stay safe.

CNBC Data Pages:

* Dow 30 Stocks—In Real Time
* Where's the US Dollar Today?
* Track Treasury Prices Here

In the meantime, Cuggino said although there are risk factors and uncertainty in the markets, earnings are going to continue to improve.

“There’s also a tremendous amount of liquidity out there that will be used to prime economic growth going forward,” he said.

Cuggino recommended sticking with equities—“especially U.S. multinationals who take advantage of worldwide growth.” He also likes the financial services, biotechnology, pharmaceuticals and technology sectors.

Hehehe...
Opet si počeo da mračiš, Dexi! :)

:-) Mraci covek svaki dan, izgleda je vecim delom u € $ £ ili ¥ pa bi da se ovajdi. :-)

Covek rece da je moguce ici ispod "double deep-a", gde smo onda mi?

Mi cemo onda u ponor a ne u bunar.Stvarno mracan neki lik taj Lekas. :face:

Ma slažem se ja sa tobom, Dexi! Treba biti jako oprezan!
Nadam se da smo svi u poslednjih par meseci u nekom pristojnom plusu, da možemo da priuštimo ovaj rizik...
Za svaki taj tekst koji priča da će biti propast sveta, ima jedan tekst koji tvrdi da će berza da raste do sredine sledeće godine.
Naravno, super je što prenosiš upozorenja. Znam da si u akcijama, i da ti ne odgovara uopšte da krene Double Dip. Kao ni nama ostalima!

Stefi, treba zaista biti nerazuman pa u ova vremena spustiti gard. Tesko da Wall Street moze da raste do sredine naredne godine, prosto zbog ogromnog pondera P/E na SP500. Sta ce da potpali takav bull? A Belex, bez obzira na relativno nizak P/E ponder (oko 9,5) je jako susceptibilan na desavanja na zapadnim berzama, uostalom videli smo to u prosli petak. Nas bottom je na 347 (koliko se secam), teorijski Belex moze da ide i na 200, na primer. Zaista ne mracim, pokusavam da zastitim svoja ulaganja na najbolji moguci nacin.

Samo nastavi, Dexi! Kada ti štitiš svoju investiciju, štitiš i naše...
Svi smo skloni, ili neka bude da sam JA sklon, kada ide sve kako treba i vidim da zarađujem, da postanem euforičan, da popijem i da se veselim. Bolje je da se s vremena na vreme podsetimo da može da krene i veoma loše!

U pravu je Dexiv mnogi ovde lece rane od 2007(i moja malenkost)oprez nikad nija na
odmet. :D

Ipak su doro zavrsili.North/Latin America
INDEX VALUE CHANGE %CHANGE TIME DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 9,849.60 62.73 0.64% 15:51
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Evo priblizavamo se 10000. Secam se kada su na NYSE prvi put probili 10000 i otvarali sampanjac. Bilo je to cini mi se bilo nekoliko meseci pre bombardovanja blizanaca (11.sept.)
I evo sada posle toliko godina cekamo da indeks probije 10000 sa PE ponderom koji postaje nerealno visok. Pitam se koliki je bio ponder pre bombardovanja, ako neko zna.
Takodje se pitam da li uopste treba pratiti NYSE i da li ova zemlja vec gubi znacaj u svetu finansija.
Sve mi se cini da se treba vise orjentisati na Aziju i Evropy. Mislim da ce sa vremenom Amerika i Australija postati ono sto su uvek i bile - bogate Kolonije a ne centri zbivanja.

Nazalost tako je. Stranci se nece pojaviti sve dok ne pokupuju sve sto tamo vredi.
Da nije Bondovih izvestaja (puno mu hvala) bio bih u iluziji da da su stranci poceli da kupuju i da dizu beleks.
S druge strane drago mi je da ima sve vise nasih ljudi koji koriste priliku da kupe po niskim cenama.

Frontier Markets to Outperform EM in 2010, HSBC’s Nannini Says
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By Allen Wan

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Frontier-market equities will outperform emerging-market stocks next year, led by gains in Middle Eastern shares, said HSBC Holdings Plc’s Andrea Nannini, whose fund has more than doubled the benchmark index this year.

“The frontier markets will perform very well in 2010,” said Nannini, who manages $150 million including the HSBC New Frontiers Fund, which has gained 47 percent in 2009. “The Middle East will lead the way, driving frontier markets higher. The rally may start as early as the fourth quarter this year.”

The MSCI Frontier Markets Index has climbed 23 percent in 2009, trailing a 67 percent rally for MSCI Inc.’s benchmark emerging-markets gauge. The frontier index trades at 9 times estimated earnings, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index of 22 developing nations fetches 16 times estimated profit.

Frontier-market stocks should be trading “in line” with developing-nation equities, Nannini said.

“Traditionally, frontier markets have traded in line or even a slight premium,” he said in a telephone interview from London.

To contact the reporter on this story: Allen Wan in New York at awan3@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 12, 2009 13:10 EDT

Odlicna vest, Stefane! :clap:

Pa ako nas oni ne izvuku, niko neće... :) Treba ih samo dočekati!

Pazi, ponder P/E na Belexu je 9,5, sto je sjajno... Znas li koliki je na SP500? 138!! Jezivo... Korekcija se obicno javlja kada je P/E oko 30. Medjutim, ako Wall Street krene da se rusi, Belex ce pravo u ponor.

Hajmo jedan po jedan uspon, pa onda pad... :)
Mislim da možemo da priuštimo još jedan lep rast, kao onaj septembarski, pa onda da brinemo...

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Po svemu sudeci sutra nas ceka jos jedan interesantan dan na Belex, osim , naravno akcionara PRGS ......

Svetske berze u očekivanju kvartalnih izveštaja

Yahoo 12/10/2009 08:31:00

Ova sedmica mogla bi biti jedna od važnijih u poslednje vreme s obzirom da bi nekolicina velikih korporacija trebalo da objavi rezultate poslovanja za period jul-septembar. Među kompanijama čiji bi rezultati trebali da budu smernica ulagačima oko brzine izlaska iz recesije nalaze se: Intel, IBM, General Electric, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs. Azijska tržišta otpočela su sedmicu oprezno uglavnom oscilirajući blago ispod vrednosti ostvarenih u petak.

Dolar nastavlja da pada. Ocekujem danas na S&P probijanje otpora na 1080.

Tenzija ko na derbijuu

Kada belex nije pratio rast na ostalim trzistima, ocekujem da nece pratiti ni eventualne padove :-)

Sudeci po najnovijim izvestajima http://www.marketwatch.com/story//intel-reports-lower-profit-but-beats-estimates-2009-10-13
futuresi ce ujutru biti u plusu a sa njima, zna se, Evropoa.
Sad, gde smo mi u svemu tome?

intel bolji rezultati od ocekivanih. cekamo do kraja nedelje i banke.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/jpm/overview
Uf, uf, uf, bice danas :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

Sto se nervirate. :lol: Rezultati ce biti bolji od ocekivanih,posebno to vazi za banke.S&P 500 ide na 1120!

Doci cemo i mi na red , dok ovi malo obrnu pare tamo, pa ce da se vrate amo!

joj samo neka sacekaju jos nedelju dana! :bounce:

JPMorgan’s Investment Bank Rescues Earnings From Loan Losses
Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. posted its highest profit since the subprime mortgage market collapsed in 2007, relying on a surge in investment-banking revenue to weather higher losses on consumer loans.
Third-quarter earnings rose to $3.59 billion, or 82 cents a share, from $527 million, or 9 cents, in the same period a year earlier at the height of the financial crisis, the New York- based company said today in a statement. Profit surpassed the highest estimate, 65 cents, among 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=an8TYZj4bWAE

Retail Sales in the U.S. Decrease Less Than Forecast (Update3)
Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers fell less than anticipated in September, a sign households will play a greater role in the emerging economic recovery.

The 1.5 percent decrease in purchases followed a 2.2 percent gain the prior month, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Sales excluding automobiles climbed 0.5 percent, more than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aydXChERey0A

U jednom trenutku DOW je presao 10.000.

Zestoko na Wall Street-u! Bas me interesuje kako ce sutra odreagovati Belex!

Nista posebno ne ocekujem. Nelikvidnost i to je to. Tako ce biti jos neki period dok se Ameri ne ohlade i onda ce valda krenuti. Po meni, najveci problem koji izaziva nelikvidnost jeste sto nema atraktivnih kopmanija interesantnih velikim fondovima. Veliki u Srbiji nemaju sta da kupe, ako cemo realno. Do kada ce to biti? Mislim da ce to biti sve dok u Srbiji ovd privatne firme poput Delte, Mpc-a, comtrade i njima slicnih ne izadju na berzu. Oni bi povukli trziste iz ove zabokrecine. Jasno je, do ovoga ce proci jos godina i godina.

Danasnji FIS je pokazao povratak stranih investitora, ubedljiva vecina na strani kupovine. Kako ce se trziste ponasati nakon snaznog relija zapadnih berzi? Ostaje da sacekamo sutrasnji dan.

Naravno da im je to odlican signal da smelije udju.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_BLLjAB5G4UU/StYlbwV0olI/AAAAAAAAAPM/HaPdjEEgklU/s1600-h/DJIA+10000.PNG

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Evo da lepše izgleda, a i FINALNI rezultat:

Sutra jednostavno moramo bar 3% u plus, hteli ne hteli. Pa valjda ce ovi kojima nije hitno (Nicovic) da sacekaju malo sa prodajom posle ovakvog dana.

Mnogo pozitivni znaci, 10.000 poena na DOW JONES-U znaci jako mnogo u psiholoskom smislu. Ocekuje se jos vise investitora u Americi. Sutra gledamo prelivanje u Evropi, mada je danas pocelo da se zeleni posle odlicnih vesti o profitu druge po velicini Americke banke. Veliko je pitanje kako ce nasa berza reagovati. Problem je likvidnost. Za ocekivati je plus, kako kaze atomski mrav. I pitanje sta ce biti sa Aik-om?

Danas je pusten paket od 12000 akcija AIKB po ceni od 3000 dinara. Nicovic ili neko drugi, videcemo table uskoro. Ako se taj trend nastavi sutra, sa pretovarom velikih paketa, nista od skoka na Belexu.