BELEX Club
BELEX Club

Ekonomski Forum
 
PrijemPortalliFAQ - Često Postavljana PitanjaTražiRegistruj sePristupi
Share | 
 

 Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh

Pogledaj prethodnu temu Pogledaj sledeću temu Ići dole 
Idi na stranu : 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13  Sledeći
AutorPoruka
Gost
Gost



PočaljiNaslov: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/9/2007, 15:42

Metth evo otvorene teme pa izvoli
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/9/2007, 15:53

Sta nam savetujes?
Sta da cuvamo a sta da prodamo....
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/9/2007, 16:37

@Sneki ::
Sta nam savetujes?
Sta da cuvamo a sta da prodamo....

Nisam bre ja IFA !! :)

Samo mogu da ti kazem shta mislim... A posle ti odluchuj... necu posle da mi neko dodje da mi se zali i da me proziva :) :) :)
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/9/2007, 16:49

Sta je IFA ?
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/9/2007, 16:50

@Sneki ::
Sta je IFA ?

sorry... uk termin:

http://www.ifa-guide.co.uk/
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 12:40

[quote=Til][quote=Matthew Greenburgh]Ne verujem u PBB..........[/quote]
ajd kad je spomenu, sta mislis o Cedi Petrovicu ?[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 12:42

[quote=bela]Citah prethodnih sat-dva ove poslednje postove i vidim da nam se pridruzio neki skaut, nase gore list.
Lepo i korisno i sto je najvaznije sustinski tacno ( valjda cu uspeti da iscitam sve).

Da slede merdzovanja slede i to nije tajna i u tom svetlu je dobro baviti se na vreme i takvim temama. Izvesna razlika u pristupu investiranju (dugorocnom,spekulantskom,malom-velikom) postoje i u tom smislu ne treba porediti neke investitorske odluke ali ih ne treba ni ignorisati.

Gurati ideju potencijalnog spajanja (moze se i drugacije reci) AGBN i AIKB je u ovom trenutku ideja koja je proizvod ne zelje vec neminovnosti do koje se doslo nepromisljenim odlukama menadzmenta (AGBN) u proslosti.

To sada popeglati je poprilican posao a i kostace debelo,samo da vidimo koga.

Pozicije su dijametralno suprotne a glavni igraci (veliki akcionari i menadzment) su izgradili poveliki zid koji se nece lako ni srusiti ni preskociti.

Za pocetak savetujem da se ne koristi taktika diskreditovanja onog dela velikih akcionara koji su protiv te ideje ( ATE) jer mi se cini da je taj put duzi i neizvesniji.

Probne balone takodje ne savetujem jer hartija AGBN je prezivela takve oscilacije da bi to bio rizik koji menadzmentu nije potreban,bar dok ne ispegla odnose sa velikim akcionarima.
Ravnjanje u pogledu potencijala jedne i eventulnih slabosti druge je stavka za pregovore a ne za licitiranje i to nije bas argumentacija koja na ovom podneblju donosi nekakav rezultat.

Nekoliko puta sam vec rekla da je smena menadzmenta AGBN a onda ulazak u pregovore jedino resenje koje bi sve zadovoljilo ,ali ocito da me niko ne uzima za ozbiljno.
Naravno jasno je da bi menadzment AIKB iz takve opcije izasao kao pobednik ali zar to nije i cilj?

Uglavnom to je to.

Inace parametri koji su se ,bar na ovoj temi iznosili su ok. sa skautske strane ali oni igraju trenutno i jednokratno tj.podlozni su promeni i kod recimo opredeljenja za dugorocno investiranje nisu bas preporucljivi za upotrebu.
Mada su izvedeni iz realnih pokazatelja. Negde na uredjenom finansijskom trzistu imaju daleko veci uticaj nego ovde trenutno.

Najbanalniji primer je odnos broja expozitura neke banke u odnosu na njenu pozicioniranost u Beogradu/centralnu Srbiju/Vojvodinu, tu se procene moraju vrsiti detaljno i u pojedinostima.
Takvi podatci se ovde ne objavljuju ili su bar duboko skriveni za siri krug investitora (malo siri).

U svakom slucaju videcemo sta donosi jesen.

P.S. Zasto ima ovoliko otvorenih tema -nako,nisam znala gde da napisem svoj komentar. Zasto se ne postuje na pojedinacnim hartijama,preglednije je.[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 12:43

[quote=Armadilo]Matthew,
pokusaj da budes OK prema ljudima sa kojima se dopisujes a koji ti nisu nista "nazao" ucinili (Bela, Ivan, Emerald...) i budi profi i u ophodjnju sa njima kao sti si profi i u svom znanju i poslu
Niko ovde nije samozvani "expert" .... neko zna vise neko manje...
evo ja pare umam da zaradim umem i da ih pristedim a sto se ulaganja tice samo umem da "nahranim svinje i nista da ne diram" :) (ako znas taj vic)

... tako da je i tvoje a i prisustvo svakog clana ovde - dragoceno... slazem se i da to sto si im napisao i nije tako strasno i da ti je vec pun k.... pisanja i da brzo odgovaras i svima... :)
hvala

edit: pitanja iz ovog posta su prebacena na AGBN[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 12:44

@Sneki ::
[quote=Til][quote=Matthew Greenburgh]Ne verujem u PBB..........
ajd kad je spomenu, sta mislis o Cedi Petrovicu ?[/quote][/quote]

Da komentarishem, a? :) Mislim da sam vec odgovorio na to... To je sa drugog foruma, zar ne?

Ne znam CP -- nikada ga nisam upoznao. Kazu ljudi da je cool lik, da dosta zna i da je relativno moderniji u shvatanjima od ovih ostalih po ostalim bankama.

Nije dobro prodao Exim Italijanima. I ne znam ko mu je dao one silne akcije u PBB -- nisam bash primetio da banka ima mega rezultate pa da mu dash equity... confused

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 12:51

NA ovo ti nisu dali da odgovoris:

[quote=Ivan]@Met

1. Za ovo sto si smanjivao kapital u celoj ovoj racunici na osnovu "izjave" onog koji vrti i laze i pumpao ROE - jedan minus

2. Znam da je dosta 1/10 kapital/aktivu da radi banka kako treba. Vec smo o tome pricali i tu nema nista nejasno . 1/12 ili ti 8% RWA ideala - cito Bazel - dva minusa

3. Lepo te molim da pricas srpski zadnjih 10 dana a ti nastavljas po starom. Distribucija se u Srbiji radi kada se nesto plasira ne smanjuje. - tri minusa i dalje nastavljas

5. To sto ti ne priznajes koliki sam ja profit gadjao to je tvoj problem. To sto aktivno, celodnevno, zadnjih 7 dana aktivno propagiras interese i potencijalne strategije AGBN, usput pljujuci po svemu sto hoda ovim trzistem hartija sa vrlo klimavim argumanetima koji kad ti se spomenu, zaobilazis, ili krivis zakone koji su takvi i vaze za sve samo za tebe ne, to je moj problem. - cetvrti minus

6. To sto ces da uzajmis 150M i podelis mega dividendu da bi smanjio kapital i dalje ne resava problem pasive gde si u dugu prema poveriocima tih 150M..Profit se povecava ali sa njim i dug na pasivi banke, i trskovi po pasivnim kamatama. Ne moze se ni iz cega (vanbilansna aktiva) stvoriti nesto (bilansna aktiva) ako neko nekom nesto ne plati. AGBN ovde ne placa nego joj svi uzimaju.

I za kraj ovog horora.

Jos jednom.

Kapital: 16.159.673.000
CoC = 12%
LTGR = 7%
napumpani ROE = 6%

PB/V = 0.2 na ovim nivoima i danas!!! Bez Antonicevih obecanja, klasifikacija, smanjenja kapitala, mega dividendi, brzih operacija. Sada i danas.

Pumpas covece, mnogo bezobrazno pumpas. Nikad i ni nasta nisam potrosio ovoliko vremena da dokazem da neko ne govori istinu nego spekulise klimavim neistinama.

Trazim dobar razlog da te ostavim na forumu ali mi ne ide.

Ban, veciti. Bez bilo kakvog prava na povratak. Za ostale diskutante - slobodno pisite adminu ako zelite povratak otpisanih, ovo je moja konacna odluka.

P.S.
4. Ucili su meni da m/m ne radi u sistemu gde ima poreza i sistemu gde nema nepravedne raspodele informacija i korupcije. I da nije svejedno da li firma radi sopstvenim ili pozajmljnim sredstvima. Jer ovo drugo kosta.[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 12:57

@Sneki ::
NA ovo ti nisu dali da odgovoris:

I za kraj ovog horora.

Ma pusti bre... Pravi se pametan, a u zbilji nema blage veze sa osnovnim konceptima valuacije.

Objashnjavam mu nedelju dana kako ljudi gledaju na cifre, on se cheshe po glavi i non stop neshto izmishlja i pravi se pametan, a ne prati nishta shto mu se govori.

Lakshe mu je bilo da zalepi ban nego da ukapira o chemu se zapravo radi. Pokazao je lichnu kartu. ;) ;) ;) Mene bash briga... Ni iz dzepa, ni u dzep... A on muchenik natezao se da neshto ukapira, i kada vishe nije mogao da izdrzi (a nishta nije ukapirao i dalje!), e onda ban.

Pa poslednje je vreme doshlo... ;) ;) ;)

Neka ih tamo neka se uljuljkuju u "expertske" ocene i analize... Pa cu da ih pitam za mesec/dva dana shta su lupali ;) ;) ;)

C, c, c, c, ...

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 13:04

Sta kazes na OVO:

[quote=belka]Ovo je brutalno vredan info kad je u pitanju AIK, koji u tom slucaju moze prilicno lezerno da se oseca. Medjutim, to je direktno guranje prsta u oko stranim bankama, koje nisu dobro kapitalizovane, a Jelasic je tu i postavljen da radi u njihovom interesu, on je direktna ispostava za zastitu interesa pre svega Raifa, Intese, Unicredita, Hipo banke i ostalih. Ne zaboravite, u kratkoj epizodi dok G17 nije vrsio vlast (period od 7-8 meseci u toku 2003.god) Jelasic je radio u HVB banci, koju je danas preuzeo Unicredit. Tu ima elemenata sukoba interesa, i to takvog da se coveku sledi krv u zilama.

Medjutim, kriminalnoj hobotnici jos niko ne sme da stane na rep, ocigledno su svi pi...ce. Prosto mi je cudno da ce on da opstruira mega profite koje strane banke imaju na zelenaskim (i gore) kamatama na gotovinske kredite. On je direktan covek stranog bankarskog lobija, postavljen je tu da im omoguci prvo pozicioniranje, prodor i ekstremne profite na klasicnom kriminalu, lihvarenju, verovatno retko zabelezenom u savremenoj ekonomskoj praksi. Tako da cisto sumnjam u tu praznu pusku kojom se iskezio kao neki zastitnik interesa gradjana i zauzdavac inflacije. Kao drzi inflaciju pod kontrolom, a ovamo se nemilice isisava kapital iz dzepova jadnih ljudi zeljnih svega, pa i kupovine robe svakojake na kredit po zelenaskim kamatama. Guverner je obican bednik razornog dejstva, kao i predsednik njegove stranke, i ubedjen sam da ovu meru nece primeniti.[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 13:14

@Sneki ::
Sta kazes na OVO:

Nije mu dobro... ;) ;) ;)

Koja je to gomila gluposti na jednom mestu.. Kako ga ne smara da pishe tolike gluposti??

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 13:26

Matt, pomozi coveku :D

[quote=tonca]Imam veoma interesantan problem. Kao sto svi znamo kod nas u zemlji trziste novca nije razvijeno i tako nemamo formiranu kamatnu stopu.

Da li neko moze da mi kaze na koji nacin mogu da uradim "mark to market"?[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 13:55

@Sneki ::
Matt, pomozi coveku :D

[quote=tonca]Imam veoma interesantan problem. Kao sto svi znamo kod nas u zemlji trziste novca nije razvijeno i tako nemamo formiranu kamatnu stopu.

Da li neko moze da mi kaze na koji nacin mogu da uradim "mark to market"?
[/quote]

Zavisi koji instrument hoce da markira to market. Mora da nam da vishe informacija. A i da na kaze u koju mu svrhu ovo treba. Ako je IAS 39, onda moze i acquisition cost da bude mera, ne more fair value

Zavisi... Valjda ce da dodje da nam da malo vishe informacija... :) :) :)

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 13:57

A ovom si ostao duzan:

[quote=Til]debt to equity ratio, nasao sam razlicite informacije

na wiki:

............... It is equal to total liabilities divided by shareholders' equity.
D/E
----------------------------------------
a u knjizi gore spomenutoj je
D/D+E
dakle debt podeljen sa citavom pasivom, a ne samo sa equity ?

da li je u pitanju razliciti ratio, slucajno jednako nazvan ili postoje razliciti pristupi istoj problematici ?[/quote]
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 14:04

@Sneki ::
A ovom si ostao duzan:

[quote=Til]debt to equity ratio, nasao sam razlicite informacije

na wiki:

............... It is equal to total liabilities divided by shareholders' equity.
D/E
----------------------------------------
a u knjizi gore spomenutoj je
D/D+E
dakle debt podeljen sa citavom pasivom, a ne samo sa equity ?

da li je u pitanju razliciti ratio, slucajno jednako nazvan ili postoje razliciti pristupi istoj problematici ?
[/quote]

Znam da leveraged finance bankeri koriste za D/E = FINANCIAL DEBT / EQUITY (ne total liabilities)

Ovo su dve razlichite formule, ali se lako izvode jedna iz druge... ;) ;) ;)

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/18/2007, 18:55

Evo interesantnih relativnih racija za banke na Belex-u. ;)

Racio = cena / operativni prihodi (1H 2007 anualizovano)

JUBMES banka = 30.3x
Privredna banka Pančevo = 24.4x
Privredna banka Beograd = 16.7x
Čačanska = 14.3x
AIK banka = 14.2x
Srpska banka = 13.8x
Metals—banka = 13.6x
Komercijalna = 13.2x
Univerzal = 13.5x
Agrobanka = 10.0x
Banka Poštanska štedionica = 8.4x
Credy banka = 6.3x

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Grlja
Our family
Our  family


Broj poruka : 180
Points : -24
Datum upisa : 22.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/20/2007, 01:40

@Matthew Greenburgh ::
Evo interesantnih relativnih racija za banke na Belex-u. ;)

Racio = cena / operativni prihodi (1H 2007 anualizovano)

JUBMES banka = 30.3x
Privredna banka Pančevo = 24.4x
Privredna banka Beograd = 16.7x
Čačanska = 14.3x
AIK banka = 14.2x
Srpska banka = 13.8x
Metals—banka = 13.6x
Komercijalna = 13.2x
Univerzal = 13.5x
Agrobanka = 10.0x
Banka Poštanska štedionica = 8.4x
Credy banka = 6.3x


Dobro nam dosao na forum. A na analizama svaka cast...
1.sta mislis o aik banci, pogadjas da imam akcije>>>
2.sta je jos po tebi dobra banka, meni recimo univerzal ( miskovic ) i privredna ne deluju lose...
3.Jelasic je postavljen u cilju povecanja abnormalnih profita banaka, koje otimaju novac putem kamata i lizinga, a gradjani kao ovce jednostavno ne citaju one reci napisane malim slovima koje im stoje u ugovoru. Slazem se sa Sneki, a u vezi stava da Jelasic sebe predstavlja kao zastitnika gradjana od toboze "zlih banaka" i na tome pravi politicke i licne poene. Pogledajte samo Labusa, da li ga se iko seca? To je covek koji je ovde na velika vrata doveo strane banke i unistio domace( vecinu ), a jelasic i Dinkic su mu zdusno pomagali. Prema tome, sve je po meni vrlo nestabilno u bankarskom smislu.
4.I na kraju, kad udjes u banku, jedino sto prvi esalon ( salteruse i tzv. savetnici ) zna, to je otvaranje racuna i nekav obracun po uzimanju kredita, ozbiljnog investicionog bankarstva ovde nema, jer da ga ima i da je sve ok, ti bi "ladno" mogao da polozis svoj portfolio kao garanciju i da podignes kredit u nekom procentu vrednosti portfolia, recimo.... Na berzi nema indeksa, fjucersa, a to bi banke trebalo da podrze... Mnogo je...
Poz...
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/20/2007, 15:46

@Matthew Greenburgh ::
@Sneki ::
Matt, pomozi coveku :D

[quote=tonca]Imam veoma interesantan problem. Kao sto svi znamo kod nas u zemlji trziste novca nije razvijeno i tako nemamo formiranu kamatnu stopu.

Da li neko moze da mi kaze na koji nacin mogu da uradim "mark to market"?

Zavisi koji instrument hoce da markira to market. Mora da nam da vishe informacija. A i da na kaze u koju mu svrhu ovo treba. Ako je IAS 39, onda moze i acquisition cost da bude mera, ne more fair value

Zavisi... Valjda ce da dodje da nam da malo vishe informacija... :) :) :)[/quote]

Auf, ovaj tonca se pravi pametan mnogo.

Evo relevantan text na temu:

"The best evidence of fair value is quoted price in an active market. If the market for a financial instrument is not active, an entity establishes fair value by using a valuation technique.

The objective of using a valuation technique is to establish what the transaction price would have been on the measurement date in an arm’s length exchange motivated by normal business considerations. Valuation techniques include using recent arm’s length market transactions between knowledgeable, willing parties, if available, reference to the current fair value of another instrument that is substantially the same, discounted cash flow analysis and option pricing models. If there is a valuation technique commonly used by market participants to price the instrument and that technique has been demonstrated to provide reliable estimates of prices obtained in actual market transactions, the entity uses that technique. The chosen valuation technique makes maximum use of market inputs and relies as little as possible on entity-specific inputs. It incorporates all factors that market participants would consider in setting a price and is consistent with accepted economic methodologies for pricing financial instruments. Periodically, an entity calibrates the valuation technique and tests it for validity using prices from any observable current market transactions in the same instrument (ie without modification or repackaging) or based on any available observable market data.

Investments in equity instruments that do not have a quoted market price in an active market, and whose fair value cannot be reliably measured shall not be designated as at fair value through profit or loss ... and shall be measured at cost."

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
tonca
Just looking
Just looking


Broj poruka : 8
Points : -8
Datum upisa : 23.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/23/2007, 02:22

Imam muku na poslu :(

Pokusavam da markiram forward ugovore.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/23/2007, 10:06

@tonca ::
Imam muku na poslu :(

Pokusavam da markiram forward ugovore.

Shta je underlier -- valuta? Koji maturity?

Trebalo bi da ima neshto na trzishtu shto mozesh da iskoristish...

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Geniji iz M&V   8/25/2007, 20:43

Odgovor ekspertu iz M&V Investments -> http://www.broker.co.yu/blog/?p=108

Koga mrzi da posecuje, evo pejstovan chlanak i odgovor:

CHLANAK:

IPO u Bugarskoj, Srbija još čeka prvi…
Aleksandar Milinković

Da je IPO veoma blizu nas i da je to pravo “osveženje” na berzi, najbolje se može videti na primeru Bugarske, koja će, prema očekivanjima analitičara, ove godine imati 20-ak novih hartija! Do sada su dve banke imale fantastičan debi (Corporate Commercial bank - [BSE simbol: CORP] i First Investment bank - [BSE simbol: FIB]) dok se IPO Investbank-e, sprema za oktobar. Interesovanje investitora nije izostalo. Naprotiv, za CORP je uplaćeno 12 puta više od planiranih cca €30m i to na maksimumu intervala (koji se kretao izmedju BGN 45 i 58,5 po akciji) dok je za IPO FIB uplaćeno 6 puta više od ponuđenih €90,6m, takođe u gornjoj zoni intervala (u toku bookbuilding-a investitori su vrednovali ovu banku na BGN 10,7 po akciji, ponuđeni interval kretao se između BGN 8 i 11). Ova konstatacija ne treba da zavara da su banke bile “jeftine”. Pojedini mulitpikatori ovih banaka posle IPO-a bili su čak i iznad našeg proseka za bankarski sektor!

I pored visokog vrednovanja, kao i procentualno malog free float-a, debi je bio izuzetno uspešan – prvog dana trgovanja CORP beleži skok od cca 30% a nedelju dana kasnije izlazak FIB-a obeležen je pozitivnom promenom od nekih 13%. Dodao bih i to da se M&V Investments našao na listi investitora, pokazujući još jednom nameru da postane jak regionalni igrač, ovoga puta i na berzi u Sofiji.

U IT sektoru se takođe pojavljuju kompanije koje će se listirati na berzi u Sofiji – Bianor je prva takva kompanija, koja je već “odradila” upis i uplatu a početak trgovanja se očekuje u avgustu. Sličan potez planiraju i Specialized Business Systems (SBS) i IT firma Sirma.

Autor Aleksandar Milinković, 03.07.07 @ 14:33 | 1 Komentar

ODGOVOR:

"Ova konstatacija ne treba da zavara da su banke bile “jeftine”. Pojedini mulitpikatori ovih banaka posle IPO-a bili su čak i iznad našeg proseka za bankarski sektor!"

Ovaj zakljuchak je u potpunosti pogreshan. Vrlo sam iznenadjen da neko ko radi u research odeljenju navodno eminentne sprske brokerske firme ima tako loshe poznavanje domaceg i regionalnih bankarskih sistema.

Takodje, citirani deo teksta apsolutno ima afirmativnu konotaciju koja kad dolazi od nekoga ko radi u brokerskoj kuci ne lichi ni na shta drugo nego na najgoru vrstu konflikta interesa.

Bez ikakvog detaljnijeg komentara autor dolazi do zakljuchka da su "pojedini mulitpli bugarskih banaka posle IPO-a bili čak i iznad našeg proseka za bankarski sektor", shto apsolutno nije tachno. Autor je, pretpostavljam, povrshnom analizom pogledao P/BV multiple i zakljuchio da su bugarske banke skuplje od srpskih.

Svaki iole ozbiljniji analitichar ce pogledati nekoliko multipla kako bi ocenio relativnu valuaciju banaka. U sluchaju u kojem je P/BV multipl zloupotrebljen, kao shto je to sluchaj u Srbiji, gledaju se "franchise" multipli kao shto su P/aktiva, P/krediti i P/# prodajnih mesta.

Chinjenica je da su srpske banke nezasluzeno najskuplje u regionu.

No, pochnimo od izvikanog P/Bv multipla i pogledajmo gde danas trguju relevantne bugarske i srpske banke.

FIB: 4.77x; racio kapital/aktiva = 8.5%
Corp: 3.64x; racio kapital/aktiva = 12.2%

Komercijalna: 6.00x; racio kapital/aktiva = 15.6%
AIK banka: 3.21 x; racio kapital/aktiva = 45.8%

Ako Bugarske banke normalizujemo na prosecan kapital/aktiva racio za Bugarski sektor na kraju Juna 2007. (10.5%) i isto to uradimo za srpske banke (20.7%), videcemo koliko su stvarno srpske banke skuplje od bugarskih:

FIB: 4.04x
Corp: 4.07x

Komercijalna: 4.77x
Corp: 5.89x

Toliko o valuaciji na bazi P/BV multipla.

Pogledajmo sada daleko vaznije "franchise" multiple za dve relevantne banke FIB i Komercijalnu -- na ovom se primeru tek vidi koliko su valuacije sprskih banaka "naduvane":

P/aktiva
FIB: 0.40x
Komercijalna: 0.94x

P/krediti
FIB: 0.61x
Komercijalna: 1.83x

P/depoziti
FIB: 0.53x
Komercijalna: 1.21x

P/# prodajnih mesta
FIB: €6.7 miliona
Komercijalna: €4.7 miliona

Jedino je na ovom poslednjem pokazatelju Komercijalna na "diskontu" -- ali se ovaj diskont objashnjava bespotrebno velikom i veoma neproduktivnom mrezom Komercijalne banke, kao shto se to jasno vidi iz gornjih pokazatelja.

Za kraj analize da napomenem da su ovi multipli bazirani na trenutnim cenama -- znachi nakon ovog znachajnog rasta bugarskih akcija u periodu od IPO do danas o kojem autor govori.

Preporuchio bih autoru da u buducnosti uradi detaljnije analize pre nego shto izadje u javnost sa velikim izjavama kojim urushava svoj i kredibilitet kuce u kojoj radi.

Na kraju, mislim da ovakvom tekstu koji sadrzi elemente afirmacije odredjenih hartija apsolutno nedostaje tekst slichan ovome: "This article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. All market prices, data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice."

===

Inache, isti chlanak je skinut sa B92@Biz. Bio je na linku: http://www.b92.net/biz/komentari.php?nav_id=260414

Pitam se zbog chega................ :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/28/2007, 13:10

Dobit banaka 13.313 mlrd. dinara

Posted: 27 Aug 2007 02:42 AM CDT

Beograd, 27. avgust 2007 - Dobit banaka pre oporezivanja u prvih šest meseci ove godine iznosila je 13.313 milijardi dinara. U istom periodu prošle godine banke su poslovale sa gubitkom od 3,8 milijardi dinara, objavila je Narodna banka Srbije (NBS).

Prema podacima iz izveštaja o poslovanju bankarskog sektora, 28 banaka poslovalo je sa dobitkom, a osam banaka je imalo gubitke. U periodu od aprila do juna ove godine prihodi banaka su porasli za 27,2 odsto na 46,435 milijardi dinara, dok su rashodi rasli stopom od 32,8 odsto. Ukupna aktiva banaka povećana je u prvoj polovini godine za 17,8 odsto, odnosno 208 milijardi dinara, na 1.377 milijardi, a rast u drugom tromesečju je iznosio 114 milijardi dinara, odnosno devet odsto. U prvom polugodištu banke su ostvarile dobit pre oporezivanja od 13.313 milijardi dinara, dok su u istom periodu prošle godine banke poslovale sa gubitkom od 3,8 milijardi dinara, objavila je Narodna banka Srbije (NBS).

Pet najvećih banaka ima 45,5 odsto ukupne aktive, a najveći deo ukupne bilansne sume, odnosno 52,1 odsto, predstavljaju potraživanja po odobrenim kreditima i plasmanima, a slede depoziti kod NBS sa 30,8 odsto, navodi se u izveštaju.

Kapital banaka dostigao je 260 milijardi dinara i uvećan je za 20,5 odsto od kraja 2006. godine, odnosno za 11,4 odsto u periodu od aprila do juna ove godine. Vanbilansne pozicije u drugom tromesečju povećane su za 101 milijardu na 1.431 milijardu dinara.

NBS je navela da je rast kreditne aktivnosti banka u periodu od aprila do juna iznosio 9,9 odsto, krediti su u privh šest meseci porasli za 109,3 milijardi dinara, odnosno 20 odsto, a krediti odobreni stanovništvu porasli su za 20,2 na 251 milijardu dinara. Privredi je na kraju juna bilo odobreno ukupno 384,5 milijardi dinara kredita.

Na kraju juna poslovalo je ukupno 36 banka, od kojih su 22 u većinskom vlasništvu stranih akcionara, osam je u vlasništu Republike Srbije, a većinski vlasnici šest banka su domaći akcionari i kompanije.

U prvih šest meseci ove godine poslovna mreža banaka proširena je za 92 na 2.250, poslovnica, filijala, ekspozitura i šaltera.

(Beta)
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/29/2007, 12:17

Matt, Komsinice, ActaRus,
niko da prokomentarise??? :shock:
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/29/2007, 12:37

@Sneki ::
Matt, Komsinice, ActaRus,
niko da prokomentarise??? :shock:

Ma sve ok... Sektor postaje ozbiljan... Josh samo da se uozbilje valuacije na berzi i da imamo ozbiljan sistem bre ;) ;) ;)

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   8/30/2007, 07:21

Evo malo busanje ovih smeshnih Belgijanaca ;) ;)

KBC CEO says company has EUR 5bn war chest

Story KBC, the listed Belgium–based bank and insurance group, has a war chest of EUR 5bn, reported Belgian financial daily De Tijd. The report cited Andre Bergen, chief executive officer at KBC, who said this to a news agency. This number is higher than the earlier mentioned EUR 2bn, the report said. The EUR 5bn includes a surplus capital of EUR 0.5bn to be created this year, plus the financing possibility for an additional EUR 2.5bn.

Source: De Tijd

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Grlja
Our family
Our  family


Broj poruka : 180
Points : -24
Datum upisa : 22.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/4/2007, 19:39

Cestitamo, forum svasta nesto aktivan je 100 dana
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/13/2007, 16:52

13/09/2007 KBC looking for Bulgarian bank, also looking for Serbian acquisitions - report

Story KBC, the Belgium–based financial services group, is in talks with a smaller, Bulgarian bank, regarding a takeover, reported de Standaard. The report cited an anonymous source, to which several local Bulgarian dailies had also referred, the article said.

The plan is to merge this Bulgarian bank with DZI Insurance, a Bulgarian insurance group, the paper continued. Nobody at KBC would comment on the article, but Viviane Huybrecht, a spokesperson at KBC, did confirm that KBC is looking to acquire a bank in Bulgaria.

KBC is also looking for acquisitions in Serbia, the report said. It is already known that KBC is interested in the 70% that the Serbian government is to sell in insurance group DDOR Novi Sad. Officials at KBC confirmed that they are looking for a bank and for an insurance company in Serbia.

KBC has a war chest of EUR 5bn.

Source: De Standaard

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/17/2007, 08:29

@Matthew Greenburgh ::
13/09/2007 KBC looking for Bulgarian bank, also looking for Serbian acquisitions - report

Zamolio bih ove lopove sa Fiasconomy-ja da lepo kazu odakle su pokupili news kad copy+paste-uju na Fiasconomy!! ;) ;) ;)

SRAM VAS BILO!! Onaj neki Joshua narochito...

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/17/2007, 08:30

Gadna ova nedelja... ;) ;) Neka nam je svima Bog u pomoci!! affraid

=====

Lehman earnings first real signal of credit hit
By David Wighton and Ben White in New York
Last updated: September 16 2007 22:06

Don’t bother ringing up a Wall Street bank with a bit of business at 8am on Tuesday morning. Everyone will be too busy poring over Lehman Brothers’ figures.

Wall Street has been rocked by the summer credit storms and the Lehman earnings for the three months to August will provide the first real damage report.

Because of its heavy exposure to US mortgage-backed securities, Lehman is expected to be among the hardest hit although the blow may have been significantly softened by hedging.

Some executives at rivals question whether the figures will provide an accurate picture, given the discretion allowed by accounting rules. “It is going to be difficult to work out whether Lehman has calculated its numbers on the same basis as the other firms,” says a banker, referring to figures due from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Bear Stearns this week.

One concern is the “marking to market” of trading assets. Under new accounting rules, these are divided into three buckets, ranging from “Level 1” assets, where there are clear market prices, to illiquid “Level 3” assets, which are valued using “unobservable inputs”. This could best be described as “marking to myth”, Warren Buffett said recently.

Banks’ practice was to reveal the split only in regulatory filings long after their earnings. But they will be under pressure to provide details this week, particularly if the “Level 3” proportion has increased. It averaged only 9 per cent for securities firms last quarter and includes assets such as real estate which insiders say are easy to value.

Some senior industry executives have been concerned at indications from the Securities and Exchange Commission that it is relaxed about banks reaching different valuations for the same asset. But Brad Hintz, analyst at Sanford Bernstein, says it is unlikely that there will be any “managing” of marks.

Another focus will be how banks account for loan commitments to private equity buy-outs.

Jack Ciesielski, editor of the Analyst’s Accounting Observer newsletter, says there is “no black and white” in the accounting rules about when marks should be taken against them.

Earnings for some banks will be scarred by writedowns on mortgage origination businesses including Saxon Capital, the subprime lender Morgan Stanley bought for $706m in December.

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/17/2007, 08:59

Raiffeisen International resolves on capital increase

Vienna, 17 September 2007. The management board of Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG has resolved on a capital increase from authorized capital through the issuance of up to 11,897,500 new shares. This transaction will increase the share capital of Raiffeisen International from currently EUR 435,448,500.00 by up to 8.33 % to up to EUR 471,735,875.00.

Existing shareholders will be entitled to subscribe for one new share for every twelve outstanding shares held (subscription ratio of 1 : 12). Shares for which subscription rights are not exercised will be offered by way of public offering to retail and institutional investors in Austria and by way of private placements to institutional investors outside Austria. The subscription and offer period will start on 19 September and is expected to end on or about 3 October 2007.

The management board of the company has set the maximum subscription and offer price at EUR 120.00 per share. The final subscription and offer price as well as the final number of new shares will be determined in a bookbuilding procedure (i.e., on the basis of the order book maintained by the joint bookrunners and based on the then-current share price) and will be decided and announced upon expiry of the subscription and offer period, which is expected to be on or about 3 October 2007. Depending on the final offer and subscription price and assuming the sale of the maximum number of shares offered, the transaction volume may reach approximately EUR 1.22 billion (e.g. based on the latest available closing price on Friday, 14 September 2007, of EUR 102.90). Provided the transaction runs according to plan, the first trading day for the new shares on the Vienna Stock Exchange is expected to be 5 October 2007. The new shares carry full dividend rights from and including the fiscal year 2007.

The proceeds from the capital increase are intended to strengthen the company’s capital base as a foundation for the continuing dynamic organic growth in Central and Eastern Europe and to support selective acquisitions. Raiffeisen International intends to focus its investments on the regions of Southeastern Europe and the CIS. In its further growth, Raiffeisen International intends to focus on the mid-market segment of its corporate client business and the expansion of its retail business which is developing very successfully.

The capital increase remains subject to the approval of the supervisory board, and the prospectus for the public offer in Austria is still subject to approval by the Austrian Financial Market Authority. These approvals are expected for tomorrow, 18 September 2007.

Raiffeisen International expects that Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG, Raiffeisen International’s majority shareholder with a shareholding of currently 70 %, will exercise approximately 68 % of its subscription rights to enable an increase of the free float of Raiffeisen International shares. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft and Raiffeisen Centrobank AG are acting as joint bookrunners in the offering.

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Sneki
Beli Mag
Beli Mag


Broj poruka : 5218
Localisation : Centar grada
Points : 6374
Datum upisa : 21.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 00:26

U glavnom delim tvoje misljenje o precenjenosti bankarskog sektora (ne slazem se u proceni osiguranja) i mislim da su stvarno sve banke precenjene s tim da, za razliku od tebe vidim i svetlo na kraju tunela:
dakle - cene ce biti potvrdjenei i vece, ili manje, u zavisnosti od bilansa na kraju godine... nece me cuditi ako jedna od banaka proglasi bankrot!

Ali i to, kao i cekanje do pocetka sled. godine, moramo da istrpimo... kome se zuri nek svrati do kladionice...alien

.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 08:59

Athens, September 17, 2007
PRESS RELEASE

Eurobank EFG successfully completed its share capital increase in cash, in favor of existing shareholders, at a ratio of 2 new shares for every 15 shares at €20 per share. The overall proceeds from the share capital increase amount to approximately €1,229 million.

In the context of the capital increase, a total of 61,444,496 new shares of nominal value €2.75 each will be issued, for which approximately 97.47% of shareholders subscribed. Out of the 1,554,008 unsubscribed new shares, 754,178 shares were allocated to employees who applied for up to 200 remaining new shares each, at €20 per share.

The remaining unsubscribed new shares were allocated on a pro-rata basis to shareholders who exercised their over-subscription right. More specifically, shareholders over-subscribed for 16,410,085 remaining new shares amounting to €328.2 million and will receive 4.87% of the shares they subscribed for, on a pro-rata basis.

As a result, the total demand from employees and shareholders exceeded the unsubscribed new shares by approximately 11 times.

The success of the capital increase proves the strong confidence of institutional and individual shareholders in the development and prospects of Eurobank EFG.

Following its capital enhancement, the Eurobank EFG group will accelerate its organic growth and will continue to expand its presence in countries where it is already active as well as into new countries that demonstrate significant development prospects.

Eurobank EFG has presence in seven countries outside Greece (Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia, Poland, Ukraine, Turkey, Cyprus) having invested €1.5 billion. The group network stands at 1,400 branches and points of sales with 21,000 employees. It is noted that, following the announced financial targets, group net profits are expected to exceed €820 million in 2007 with New Europe operations expected to contribute more than €60 million. Furthermore, group net profits are expected to exceed €1,550 million in 2010 out of which €550 million are expected to derive from New Europe operations.

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 09:06

@Sneki ::
U glavnom delim tvoje misljenje o precenjenosti bankarskog sektora (ne slazem se u proceni osiguranja) i mislim da su stvarno sve banke precenjene s tim da, za razliku od tebe vidim i svetlo na kraju tunela:
dakle - cene ce biti potvrdjenei i vece, ili manje, u zavisnosti od bilansa na kraju godine... nece me cuditi ako jedna od banaka proglasi bankrot!

Ali i to, kao i cekanje do pocetka sled. godine, moramo da istrpimo... kome se zuri nek svrati do kladionice...alien

.

Osiguranje je u chemernijoj situaciji od bankarskog sektora, jer trzishte praktichno ne postoji... Srpsko osiguranje je u toliko jadnom stanju, toliko nesinhronizovano sa EU, da kada sve te nove pravne provizije ulete u shemu, MTPL nece biti uopshte profitabilan (kao shto je uostalom i sluchaj svuda u svetu), a life ce biti jedini relevantan market.

Poshto life apsolutno ne postoji josh uvek u Srbiji, tako jedino ima smisla ulagati u greenfield life operacije umesto troshiti iracionalne novce na kvazi operacije. Placati glupe cene za kante kao shto je npr. Dunav i ostale male kvazi kompanijice nije value creating proposition, i to stranci odlichno znaju.

Shto se tiche investicionog portfolija osiguravajucih kompanija, tu nema nikakvih skrivenih dobitaka jer se IAS 39 (fair value accounting) uveliko vec primenjuje u Srbiji i sadashnji bilansi odrazavaju vrednosti listiranih hartija od vrednosti (neke od cena su cene tipichno, kao shto znamo, naduvane [banke, osiguranja]).

Dalje, ozbiljne strance uopshte nije briga za investicioni portfolio lokalnih igracha jer, u skladu sa svojim investicionim politikama koje se diktiraju u Frankfurtu/Amsterdamu/Bechu/Milanu/etc, stranci tipichno likvidiraju ceo domaci portfolio i ulazu u skladu sa svojim politikama koje su mnogo konzervativnije od "lupaj bato sve u Srpske deonice pa shta ti Bog da!".

Da rezimiramo:

- Bankarstvo u Srbiji ima odlichnu perspektivu. AGBN i CYBN su trenutno relativno dzabe -- mislim da su ubedljivo najjeftinije u celom univerzumu banaka u CEE. MTBN i KMBN pochinju da mi budu interesantne, ali, kao shto kazesh, da vidimo do kraja godine shta ce se sve dogadjati. KMBN mi je naravno interesantna kao "restructuring story" jer mislim da ima dosta potencijala da se sa njom dobre stvari rade (mozesh od nje dve banke napraviti);

- Osiguranje u Srbiji je prazna pricha sem u sluchaju kada je u pitanju greenfield investicija i to u life segment;

Takva ti je Sneki situacija... Znam da je gadno, ali realno. :flower1:

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 09:14

18/09/2007 Volksbank International cannot find a Serbian takeover target

Volksbank International (VBI), the private Austrian banking group, is having troubles finding a suitable takeover target in Serbia, Wirtschaftsblatt reported.

Friedhelm Boschert, chief executive at VBI, explained in the Austrian daily that no acquisitions are in sight in Serbia for the moment, as there are no banks up for sale that would suit VBI. The Serbian subsidiary of VBI has a balance sheet total of EUR 600m, it concluded.

A recent article pointed out that private Austrian banking group Oesterreichische Volksbanken (OeVAG) holds the majority in VBI, while France's Banques Populaires, Germany's WGZ Bank and Germany's DZ Bank hold the remaining 49% stake.

Source: Wirtschaftsblatt

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Milos86
VIP
VIP


Broj poruka : 2176
Godina : 30
Localisation : Nish
Points : 1262
Datum upisa : 20.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 18:33

:clap: :clap: :clap:

Zna li neko kako mogu iz Srbije da kupujem akcije u Crnoj gori?
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 18:44

@Alec ::
Pa sto im ne javis za Credy ili Agro? One su povoljne! alien

Credy bi mogli da uzmu... Verujem da chekaju proces neki da krene. CYBN ce da bude +100% kad bude deal. Naravno, prvo moraju da promene savetnike, da otpuste one neznalice iz EPIC (shta god to bilo!) i da uzmu ozbiljnog savetnika koji zna da prodaje banke. Imash i 70% vecinskog vlasnika da ti da zashtitu u SPA (nemash pojma shta je sve drzava dala u ugovorima do sada).

Agro je preveliki zalogaj za njih -- nikada nisu deal veci od E100m uradili u regionu... A i austrijska banka ima totalno bolesnu vlasnichku strukturu, sa nekim sindikatima, fondacijama, zadrugama... pitaj boga... Jedino shto je sigurno je da nemaju cash-a da podignu kapital da rade dealove, a nece da rade IPO jer nece ownership dilution...

Volks je dno brate!! ;)

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Milos86
VIP
VIP


Broj poruka : 2176
Godina : 30
Localisation : Nish
Points : 1262
Datum upisa : 20.05.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 19:56

Hvala ti puno...
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/18/2007, 20:05

@milos86 ::
Hvala ti puno...

Obrati paznju na Sofiju... Opasno dobra kinta moze da se napravi tamo... Mnogo racionalnije trzishte nego u Srbiji

Pochni da investirash u Grchke banke (NBG, Alpha) i u OTP

To su ti sigurni dobici i to masivni (po 30%/40% na EUR balanse)

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/19/2007, 11:18

Vienna, 19 September 2007

Raiffeisen International Starts Capital Increase

Today, Raiffeisen International Bank-Holding AG gave the official starting signal for the first capital increase since its IPO on 4 April 2005. As announced in an ad hoc release already two days ago, the subscription and offer period starts today and is expected to end on or about 3 October 2007. It is planned to issue a total of up to 11,897,500 new shares. Depending on the ultimate subscription and allotment price, the issue could cover a transaction volume of approximately 1.21 billion euros, once it is fully sold (e.g. based on the closing price on Tuesday, 18 September 2007, which amounted to 101.49 euros). This transaction will increase the share capital of Raiffeisen International from currently 435,448,500.00 euros by up to 8.33 % to up to 471,735,875.00 euros.

New Capital to Finance Growth

“The additional capital will provide a sound financial base for our envisaged organic growth. In addition, we obtain the necessary operating leeway that will allow us to react swiftly to market opportunities. One could say, we are filling up our tanks so that our high-performance engine can continue to run at high speed,” said Herbert Stepic, CEO of Raiffeisen International.

Since the IPO, the balance-sheet total has grown very dynamically. While it had amounted to 28.9 billion euros at year-end 2004, it had doubled to 62.6 billion by 30 June 2007. In the period 2002 to year-end 2006, consolidated profit grew annually by an average 55 per cent, i.e. from 104 million euros to 594 million euros (adjusted for one-off effects). During the first six months of 2007, Raiffeisen International recorded a profit before tax of 401 million euros.

Vigorous Growth since IPO

“Our continuing high growth rates together with our promising strategic positioning – especially in Southeastern Europe and the CIS – should present an attractive offer for the capital market to subscribe for our new shares,” said Stepic. In his opinion the dynamic growth of the retail sector – in recent months the Group’s customer base rose by an average 100,000 customers – and the solid roots among corporate customers, who continue to be the largest revenue contributor, underline the attractiveness of the capital increase.

Moreover, the medium-term financial targets that Raiffeisen International set itself at the IPO have all been reached: return on equity before tax is above 25 per cent (the value was 26.6 per cent as at 30 June 2007), the cost/income ratio amounts to less than 60 per cent (57.3 per cent as at 30 June 2007), and the risk/earnings ratio is about 15 per cent (14.2 per cent as at 30 June 2007). “We fully achieved the ambitious targets which we set ourselves at the IPO. Therefore, besides presenting an attractive investment story as ‘CEE Pure Play’, we also offer a sound confidence base,” stressed Martin Grüll, CFO.

Since Raiffeisen International went public (IPO) in April 2005, the company’s market capitalisation increased from 4.6 billion euros to about 15 billion euros at present. This corresponds to a net appreciation of about 220 per cent. With a share price performance of 108 per cent, Raiffeisen International shares were best performers in 2006, both on the ATX (plus 22 per cent) and on the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx Banks, the European industries index (plus 23 per cent).

Good Position on the Fast-Growing CEE Markets

The region of Central and Southeastern Europe (CEE) continues to offer growth opportunities for Raiffeisen International. The national economies of the CIS, in particular, for which an annual nominal economic growth of 15.1 per cent is expected until the end of 2009, as well as of Southeastern Europe (10.7 per cent annually), offer a major potential.

In addition to the macro-economic growth perspectives, it is essentially the catch-up process of the banking markets that offer long-term growth opportunities. While the banking market – expressed as an aggregated global balance-sheet total – of the euro zone amounted to about 236 per cent of the overall annual economic performance at year-end 2006, the figure was 80 per cent for Central Europe, 68 per cent for Southeastern Europe and 57 per cent for the CIS at the same time. This difference reflects the long-term catch-up process of the banking markets of this region.

International Road Show Launched

In the weeks to come, Raiffeisen International will embark on road shows within and outside Europe. Deutsche Bank AG and Raiffeisen Centrobank AG will accompany the transaction as joint book runners.

Existing shareholders will be entitled to subscribe for one new share for every twelve outstanding shares held (subscription ratio of 1 : 12). Shares for which subscription rights are not exercised will be offered by way of public offering to retail and institutional investors in Austria and by way of private placements to institutional investors outside Austria.

In any case, Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG (RZB) will participate with about 50 per cent in the transaction volume. Based on the full placement of the offering, RZB's stake would be reduced to about 68.5 per cent after the capital increase.

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/19/2007, 11:19

19/09/2007 EIBank receives offers from KBC and from La Caixa - report

Economic and Investment Bank (EIBank), a listed Bulgarian bank, is negotiating a takeover offer from Belgian bank and insurance group KBC, and Spanish bank La Caixa. This was reported by de Standaard, citing several unnamed sources, that said that both KBC and La Caixa have made an offer for a majority holding in EIB.

EIB was up 11% on this news and the Bulgarian owners of EIB are thought likely to make a decision over these offers next week.

EIBank is Bulgaria's ninth biggest bank, with end-April 2005 assets totalling over BGN 900m (EUR 459.62m), an earlier report noted.

Source: De Standaard

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/19/2007, 11:24

@Matthew Greenburgh ::
19/09/2007 EIBank receives offers from KBC and from La Caixa - report

Economic and Investment Bank (EIBank), a listed Bulgarian bank, is negotiating a takeover offer from Belgian bank and insurance group KBC, and Spanish bank La Caixa. This was reported by de Standaard, citing several unnamed sources, that said that both KBC and La Caixa have made an offer for a majority holding in EIB.

EIB was up 11% on this news and the Bulgarian owners of EIB are thought likely to make a decision over these offers next week.

EIBank is Bulgaria's ninth biggest bank, with end-April 2005 assets totalling over BGN 900m (EUR 459.62m), an earlier report noted.

Source: De Standaard

EIBank je poznata kanta od banke. Bilo kako bilo, trenutni je market cap oko €505 miliona, dok je realna cena mozda oko €300 miliona plafon.

Ipak, KBC su poznati degenerici i do sada su sve shto su platili, platili kroz nos. Ovoga puta imaju i glupe savetnike (Morgan Stanley), tako da ce verovatno cena biti u skladu sa okolnostima = glupa.

Pratimo pazljivo dalji razvoj dogadjaja... lol!

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
Matthew Greenburgh
Partner
Partner


Broj poruka : 1296
Localisation : EC4A 2BB
Points : 1528
Datum upisa : 09.08.2007

PočaljiNaslov: Re: Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh   9/22/2007, 16:31

22/09/2007 Erste Bank merger with Raiffeisen International not very sensible in long term

Erste Bank, the listed Austrian bank, does not believe a merger with listed local rival Raiffeisen International (RI) is a sensible move, Der Standard reported.

Andreas Treichl, chief executive at Erste Bank, acknowledged in a lengthy interview with the Austrian daily that such a merger would be a "funny idea", but pointed out that the move would not make a lot of sense in the long term. Furthermore, Treichl reaffirmed in the article that Erste Bank will certainly not be taken over against the will of the Erste Bank management.

Erste Bank has a market cap of EUR 16.921bn.

Source: Der Standard

_________________
He makes millions of dollars come out of those phones. He is the most revered of all species: a Big Swinging Dick.
Nazad na vrh Ići dole
 
Bankarski sektor od Matthewa Greenburgh
Pogledaj prethodnu temu Pogledaj sledeću temu Nazad na vrh 
Strana 1 od 13Idi na stranu : 1, 2, 3 ... 11, 12, 13  Sledeći
 Similar topics
-
» Novi zakon o zastiti korisnika finansijskih usluga

Dozvole ovog foruma:Ne možete odgovarati na teme u ovom forumu
BELEX Club :: Banke fun club-
Skoči na: